Matthew Stafford

LA@

PHI

98% to play

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 43.5
Implied team total: 23.3
Depth: #1
Recent snaps: 97%

38 yrs · 6′3″, 214 lb · Georgia · 2009 rd 1 pk 1

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Fair odds	Evidence
Passing
Passing yards	254.8	172.2 – 339.0	–	Solid
Passing TDs	1.5	0.0 – 3.1	–	Solid
Completions	22.6	15.6 – 29.2	–	Solid
Pass attempts	33.9	22.5 – 43.7	–	Solid
Interceptions	0.8	0.0 – 2.3	–	Solid
Pass + rush yards	261.3	184.1 – 345.4	–	Solid
Longest completion	44.2	22.6 – 57.5	–	Solid
Rushing
Rushing yards	6.5	0.0 – 14.9	–	Solid
Rush attempts	2.3	0.0 – 5.0	–	Solid
Longest rush	6.1	0.6 – 15.0	–	Solid
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	8.2%	no range	+1119	Solid
First TD scorer	1.2%	no range	+8245	Solid

Form

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
Last 3	3	37.0	22.3	290.7	2.00	1.33	2.7	3.7	1.67	17.3
Last 5	5	37.6	21.8	300.8	1.80	0.80	2.2	5.2	2.00	18.2
Last 10	10	39.5	23.3	316.1	2.30	0.90	1.7	3.7	1.70	20.4
2026 season	3	37.0	22.3	290.7	2.00	1.33	2.7	3.7	1.67	17.3

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
2026	3	111	67	872	6	4	8	11	5	52
2025	17	597	388	4,707	46	8	29	1	23	350
2024	16	517	340	3,762	20	8	30	41	28	215
2023	15	521	326	3,965	24	11	21	65	30	243
2022	9	303	206	2,087	10	8	13	9	29	108
2021	17	601	404	4,886	41	17	32	43	30	330
2020	16	528	339	4,084	26	10	29	112	38	261
2019	8	291	187	2,499	19	5	20	66	18	167
2018	16	555	367	3,777	21	11	25	71	40	212
2017	16	565	371	4,446	29	10	29	98	–	274
2016	16	594	388	4,327	24	10	37	207	–	280
2015	16	592	398	4,262	32	13	44	159	–	291
2014	16	602	363	4,257	22	12	43	93	–	252
2013	16	634	371	4,650	29	19	37	69	–	279
2012	16	727	435	4,967	20	17	35	126	–	277
2011	16	673	428	5,100	41	16	22	78	–	346
2010	3	96	57	535	6	1	4	11	–	51
2009	10	377	201	2,267	13	20	21	108	–	125

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

20 injury entries across 12 seasons · 24 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often right shoulder

2024Coach's Decision

2023Coach's decisionright Thumb

2022Concussion×3

2020right Thumb×4Rib×2

2019Hip×7

2018Back×3

2017Ankleright Hand

2015QuadricepRibsRight Upper Arm

2012Hip

2011right Finger×3Ankle

2010right Shoulder×12Foot

2009Knee×6left Shoulder×5

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Passing yards	108	83%	56.2	+7.8
Passing TDs	108	79%	1.0	-0.1
Completions	108	86%	4.1	+0.6
Rushing yards	108	70%	6.0	-0.8
Pass attempts	108	83%	6.0	+0.6
Interceptions	108	94%	0.7	+0.0
Pass + rush yards	108	84%	56.1	+7.6
Rush attempts	108	93%	1.2	+0.0
Anytime TD	108	10% vs 3%	0.1	-0.1
First TD scorer	108	2% vs 1%	0.0	-0.0
Longest completion	108	78%	12.1	+1.4
Longest rush	65	86%	3.8	+0.5

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 10 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Car	RushYd	PassYd	TD
2026 wk 3	DEN	100%	2	13	390	2
2026 wk 2	NYG	100%	4	-1	327	4
2026 wk 1	SF	84%	2	-1	155	0
2025 wk 21	SEA	100%	2	16	374	3
2025 wk 20	CHI	100%	1	-1	258	0
2025 wk 19	CAR	100%	2	0	304	3
2025 wk 18	ARI	96%	1	3	259	4
2025 wk 17	ATL	100%	0	0	269	2
2025 wk 16	SEA	100%	2	6	457	3
2025 wk 15	DET	100%	1	2	368	2