Value
Where our numbers disagree with the price a book is offering · 2026 week 4
How much we would expect to win per $1 staked, after backing out the cut the book takes. Anything under about 3% is inside our own margin of error — treat it as a coin flip rather than an edge. One row per bet rather than per book: the price shown is the best we found, and “books” counts how many others were offering it.
| Player | Market | Bet | Price | Proj | P(model) | P(market) | EV | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blake WhiteheartTE | Receiving yards | 0.5over | -101 | 11.7 | 87.1% | 47.6% | +73.4% | draftkings+1 |
 Aaron RodgersQB | Rushing yards | 0.5over | -140 | 6.8 | 84.3% | 55.1% | +44.5% | fanduel+1 |
| Aaron RodgersQB | Interceptions | 0.5over | +104 | 0.7 | 70.0% | 46.2% | +42.8% | draftkings |
| Aaron RodgersQB | Longest rush | 2.5over | -111 | 6.3 | 74.8% | 49.5% | +42.2% | draftkings |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | Rush + rec yards | 108.5under | -115 | 80.5 | 75.5% | 50.4% | +41.1% | draftkings+1 |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | Receiving yards | 26.5under | -108 | 15.1 | 72.3% | 49.2% | +39.2% | draftkings+1 |
| Blake WhiteheartTE | Receptions | 0.5over | -114 | 1.7 | 70.7% | 50.0% | +32.8% | fanduel+1 |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | Receptions | 3.5under | -105 | 2.6 | 64.2% | 48.3% | +25.4% | draftkings+1 |
| Jerry JeudyWR | Longest reception | 11.5over | -115 | 18.5 | 66.2% | 50.2% | +23.8% | draftkings |
| Deshaun WatsonQB | Interceptions | 0.5under | +100 | 0.8 | 61.7% | 47.2% | +23.3% | draftkings |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | Rushing yards | 76.5under | -112 | 65.4 | 64.0% | 50.0% | +21.1% | draftkings+1 |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB | Rush attempts | 16.5under | -120 | 12.7 | 64.8% | 51.5% | +18.7% | draftkings |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB | Receptions | 1.5under | +148 | 2.3 | 46.7% | 38.1% | +15.8% | draftkings |
| Pat FreiermuthTE | Receptions | 3.5under | -164 | 2.8 | 71.1% | 58.6% | +14.4% | draftkings+1 |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE | Receptions | 4.5under | -114 | 4.0 | 60.4% | 50.2% | +13.4% | draftkings+1 |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB | Rush + rec yards | 71.5under | -115 | 70.3 | 60.3% | 50.4% | +12.7% | draftkings+1 |
| Deshaun WatsonQB | Rushing yards | 27.5over | -113 | 37.9 | 58.9% | 50.0% | +11.0% | fanduel+1 |
| DK MetcalfWR | Receptions | 3.5under | +108 | 4.2 | 53.3% | 44.9% | +10.9% | fanduel+1 |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB | Longest reception | 8.5over | +100 | 12.4 | 55.4% | 46.9% | +10.9% | draftkings |
| Jerry JeudyWR | Receiving yards | 14.5over | -113 | 18.3 | 57.6% | 50.0% | +8.5% | fanduel+1 |
| Aaron RodgersQB | Pass attempts | 34.5under | -124 | 33.1 | 59.8% | 52.2% | +8.0% | draftkings |
| Roman WilsonWR | Receptions | 2.5under | -161 | 2.3 | 65.9% | 58.2% | +6.9% | draftkings+1 |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | Longest reception | 11.5under | -107 | 12.3 | 55.0% | 48.6% | +6.5% | draftkings |
| Deshaun WatsonQB | Passing yards | 185.5over | -113 | 178.4 | 56.4% | 50.0% | +6.3% | fanduel+1 |
| Darnell WashingtonTE | Receptions | 1.5under | +126 | 2.5 | 46.9% | 41.4% | +5.9% | fanduel+1 |
| Roman WilsonWR | Longest reception | 13.5over | -107 | 17.6 | 54.0% | 48.6% | +4.5% | draftkings |
| Pat FreiermuthTE | Receiving yards | 27.5under | -113 | 25.0 | 55.2% | 50.0% | +4.1% | fanduel+1 |
| Darnell WashingtonTE | Receiving yards | 16.5under | -111 | 19.6 | 54.8% | 49.8% | +4.1% | draftkings |
| Aaron RodgersQB | Pass + rush yards | 219.5over | -114 | 232.0 | 55.4% | 50.2% | +4.0% | draftkings+1 |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB | Receptions | 2.5over | +162 | 2.3 | 39.5% | 35.7% | +3.6% | fanduel |
| Pat FreiermuthTE | Longest reception | 13.5over | -111 | 17.0 | 54.4% | 49.4% | +3.5% | draftkings |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE | Receiving yards | 41.5under | -115 | 42.5 | 55.0% | 50.6% | +2.8% | draftkings |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE | Longest reception | 16.5over | -109 | 22.5 | 53.5% | 49.1% | +2.6% | draftkings |
| DK MetcalfWR | Receiving yards | 46.5under | -111 | 49.7 | 53.9% | 49.8% | +2.4% | draftkings |
| Aaron RodgersQB | Completions | 20.5over | +110 | 22.1 | 48.7% | 44.9% | +2.3% | draftkings |
| Aaron RodgersQB | Passing yards | 214.5over | -113 | 225.2 | 54.2% | 50.2% | +2.2% | draftkings |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | Anytime TD | yesover | +4000 | 6.4% | 6.4% | – | +161.4%doubt | draftkings+1 |
| Robert TonyanTE | Anytime TD | yesover | +3500 | 6.0% | 6.0% | – | +117.4%doubt | draftkings+1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | First TD scorer | yesover | +11000 | 1.9% | 1.9% | – | +110.4%doubt | draftkings+1 |
| Deshaun WatsonQB | First TD scorer | yesover | +1600 | 7.9% | 7.9% | – | +34.2%doubt | fanduel+1 |
| Isaiah BondWR | Anytime TD | yesover | +2000 | 6.2% | 6.2% | – | +29.9%doubt | draftkings+1 |
| Malachi CorleyWR | First TD scorer | yesover | +10000 | 1.2% | 1.2% | – | +25.9%doubt | fanduel+1 |
| Aaron RodgersQB | Anytime TD | yesover | +1500 | 7.8% | 7.8% | – | +24.2%doubt | draftkings+1 |
| Isaiah BondWR | First TD scorer | yesover | +7000 | 1.7% | 1.7% | – | +21.6%doubt | draftkings+1 |
| Malachi CorleyWR | Anytime TD | yesover | +5000 | 2.3% | 2.3% | – | +18.5%doubt | fanduel |
| Deshaun WatsonQB | Anytime TD | yesover | +400 | 22.0% | 22.0% | – | +9.8%doubt | fanduel |
| Robert TonyanTE | First TD scorer | yesover | +11000 | 1.0% | 1.0% | – | +9.7%doubt | draftkings |