Adam Thielen
WR
36 yrs · 6′2″, 200 lb · Minnesota State
Projections
Adam Thielen is not on an NFL roster (last listed NA). No projections are published for him, and none of the markets below can be priced until he signs somewhere.
The splits and history below are unchanged — they are a record of games already played, and stay accurate whatever happens this week.
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 27.3 | 0.00 | 11% | 0.28 | 1.00 | 61% | 5.1 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 27.6 | 0.00 | 10% | 0.23 | 1.00 | 57% | 5.2 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 16.4 | 0.00 | 8% | 0.17 | 1.00 | 39% | 3.2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14 | 35 | 19 | 186 | 0 | 8% | 2 | 4 | 43% | 40 |
| 2024 | 10 | 62 | 48 | 615 | 5 | 20% | 5 | 8 | 71% | 139 |
| 2023 | 17 | 137 | 103 | 1,014 | 4 | 25% | 9 | 16 | 91% | 231 |
| 2022 | 17 | 107 | 70 | 716 | 6 | 17% | 7 | 24 | 89% | 180 |
| 2021 | 13 | 95 | 67 | 726 | 10 | 20% | 6 | 15 | 84% | 200 |
| 2020 | 15 | 108 | 74 | 925 | 14 | 26% | 9 | 21 | 91% | 254 |
| 2019 | 10 | 48 | 30 | 418 | 6 | 20% | 5 | 6 | 70% | 114 |
| 2018 | 16 | 153 | 113 | 1,373 | 9 | 25% | 10 | 21 | 96% | 307 |
| 2017 | 16 | 142 | 91 | 1,276 | 4 | 27% | 11 | 15 | 93% | 240 |
| 2016 | 16 | 92 | 69 | 967 | 5 | 16% | 7 | 10 | 74% | 197 |
| 2015 | 10 | 18 | 12 | 144 | 0 | 6% | 1 | – | 29% | 35 |
| 2014 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 137 | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | 15% | 34 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
9 injury entries across 6 seasons · 8 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 100 | 78% | 2.1 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 100 | 74% | 27.9 | +0.6 |
| Rush + rec yards | 100 | 77% | 27.4 | +1.3 |
| Anytime TD | 100 | 26% vs 37% | 0.4 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 100 | 5% vs 9% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 94 | 83% | 8.2 | +0.4 |
| Longest rush | 11 | 100% | 4.1 | -2.2 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 19 |  HOU | 30% | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  BAL | 67% | 6 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  CLE | 86% | 5 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  DET | 43% | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  MIA | 58% | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | BAL | 48% | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  GB | 7% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  CHI | 15% | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 10 | BAL | 14% | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 8 |  LAC | 24% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |