Zach Ertz
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 43.5
- Implied team total
- 20.3
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 66%
35 yrs · 6′5″, 250 lb · Stanford · 2013 rd 2 pk 35
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 29.5 | 0.0 – 62.5 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.4 | 1.0 – 5.4 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 15.7 | 4.6 – 29.9 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 29.9 | 4.7 – 62.3 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 17.5% | no range | +472 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.9% | no range | +3293 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 42.0 | 0.00 | 16% | 0.33 | 1.00 | 58% | 8.2 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 44.4 | 0.00 | 19% | 0.44 | 1.00 | 66% | 8.4 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 36.4 | 0.20 | 19% | 0.42 | 1.00 | 64% | 8.5 |
| 2026 season | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 0.00 | 8% | 0.14 | 1.00 | 38% | 1.9 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 8% | 0 | 1 | 38% | 2 |
| 2025 | 13 | 72 | 50 | 504 | 4 | 19% | 6 | 9 | 66% | 126 |
| 2024 | 17 | 91 | 66 | 654 | 7 | 18% | 7 | 23 | 67% | 177 |
| 2023 | 7 | 43 | 27 | 187 | 1 | 19% | 3 | 8 | 65% | 52 |
| 2022 | 10 | 69 | 47 | 406 | 4 | 18% | 4 | 17 | 79% | 116 |
| 2021 | 17 | 112 | 74 | 763 | 5 | 19% | 7 | 21 | 74% | 181 |
| 2020 | 11 | 72 | 36 | 335 | 1 | 19% | 4 | 8 | 81% | 77 |
| 2019 | 15 | 135 | 88 | 916 | 6 | 24% | 8 | 20 | 85% | 216 |
| 2018 | 16 | 156 | 116 | 1,163 | 8 | 26% | 9 | 27 | 92% | 280 |
| 2017 | 14 | 110 | 74 | 824 | 8 | 23% | 7 | 17 | 80% | 202 |
| 2016 | 14 | 106 | 78 | 816 | 4 | 18% | 6 | 17 | 86% | 184 |
| 2015 | 15 | 112 | 75 | 853 | 2 | 18% | 7 | 9 | 71% | 170 |
| 2014 | 16 | 89 | 58 | 702 | 3 | 14% | 5 | 13 | 50% | 144 |
| 2013 | 15 | 56 | 36 | 469 | 4 | 11% | 4 | 6 | 40% | 107 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
20 injury entries across 12 seasons · 8 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often concussion
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 95 | 83% | 2.0 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 95 | 80% | 21.2 | +0.4 |
| Rush + rec yards | 95 | 83% | 20.9 | +0.8 |
| Anytime TD | 95 | 28% vs 27% | 0.4 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 95 | 6% vs 5% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 94 | 86% | 7.0 | +0.1 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  CHI | 38% | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  MIN | 69% | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  DEN | 67% | 13 | 10 | 106 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  MIA | 75% | 8 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  DET | 81% | 5 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 9 |  SEA | 63% | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 8 |  KC | 62% | 6 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 7 |  DAL | 67% | 7 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 6 | CHI | 60% | 6 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 5 |  LAC | 53% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |