Darren Waller
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 51.5
- Implied team total
- 24.0
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 43%
34 yrs · 6′6″, 245 lb · Georgia Tech · 2015 rd 6 pk 204
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 24.1 | 5.3 – 54.3 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.7 | 0.0 – 4.6 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 17.5 | 4.9 – 26.9 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 27.7 | 3.4 – 57.5 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 14.0% | no range | +616 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 3.9% | no range | +2485 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 37.3 | 0.67 | 11% | 0.23 | 2.00 | 43% | 11.1 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 30.4 | 0.40 | 13% | 0.28 | 2.00 | 43% | 8.2 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 29.0 | 0.50 | 14% | 0.32 | 1.75 | 45% | 8.5 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 37.3 | 0.67 | 11% | 0.23 | 2.00 | 43% | 11.1 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 112 | 2 | 11% | 1 | 2 | 43% | 33 |
| 2025 | 9 | 34 | 24 | 283 | 6 | 15% | 3 | 8 | 45% | 89 |
| 2023 | 12 | 74 | 52 | 552 | 1 | 21% | 6 | 4 | 69% | 113 |
| 2022 | 8 | 43 | 28 | 388 | 3 | 16% | 3 | 12 | 63% | 85 |
| 2021 | 11 | 93 | 55 | 665 | 2 | 23% | 6 | 15 | 83% | 134 |
| 2020 | 16 | 145 | 107 | 1,196 | 9 | 28% | 9 | 24 | 92% | 279 |
| 2019 | 16 | 117 | 90 | 1,145 | 3 | 24% | 8 | 11 | 91% | 221 |
| 2018 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 75 | 0 | 5% | 0 | – | 17% | 16 |
| 2016 | 10 | 17 | 10 | 85 | 2 | 4% | 1 | 7 | 28% | 31 |
| 2015 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 15% | 4 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
11 injury entries across 6 seasons · 10 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 73 | 77% | 2.1 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 73 | 71% | 30.3 | +1.6 |
| Rush + rec yards | 73 | 70% | 31.0 | +0.7 |
| Anytime TD | 73 | 28% vs 27% | 0.4 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 73 | 6% vs 5% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 72 | 81% | 8.1 | +0.6 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  CLE | 51% | 8 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  ATL | 44% | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  CHI | 35% | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  TB | 38% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  CIN | 49% | 5 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  PIT | 54% | 8 | 7 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  NYJ | 37% | 3 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  NO | 47% | 3 | 2 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 7 | CLE | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 6 |  LAC | 66% | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |