Dak Prescott

DAL@

HOU

97% to play

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 48.5
Implied team total: 22.8
Depth: #1
Recent snaps: 90%

33 yrs · 6′2″, 230 lb · Mississippi State · 2016 rd 4 pk 135

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Fair odds	Evidence
Passing
Passing yards	244.9	126.0 – 329.2	–	Solid
Passing TDs	1.7	0.0 – 3.0	–	Solid
Completions	22.7	15.2 – 30.8	–	Solid
Pass attempts	34.0	22.0 – 42.1	–	Solid
Interceptions	0.9	0.0 – 2.2	–	Solid
Pass + rush yards	261.9	137.3 – 349.8	–	Solid
Longest completion	41.8	21.3 – 59.2	–	Solid
Rushing
Rushing yards	17.0	3.2 – 41.4	–	Solid
Rush attempts	3.5	1.0 – 6.6	–	Solid
Longest rush	10.8	2.8 – 20.3	–	Solid
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	14.3%	no range	+600	Solid
First TD scorer	1.8%	no range	+5602	Solid

Form

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
Last 3	3	35.0	24.3	243.3	2.33	0.33	3.3	19.7	1.00	21.0
Last 5	5	30.6	19.8	221.4	1.80	0.20	3.2	16.4	1.80	17.3
Last 10	10	34.3	22.4	269.5	1.60	0.50	3.0	11.9	1.80	18.4
2026 season	3	35.0	24.3	243.3	2.33	0.33	3.3	19.7	1.00	21.0

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
2026	3	105	73	730	7	1	10	59	3	63
2025	17	600	404	4,552	30	10	53	177	31	314
2024	8	286	185	1,978	11	8	13	54	21	117
2023	17	590	410	4,516	36	9	55	242	39	343
2022	12	394	261	2,860	23	15	45	182	20	199
2021	16	596	410	4,449	37	10	48	146	30	321
2020	5	222	151	1,856	9	4	18	93	10	136
2019	16	596	388	4,902	30	11	52	277	23	338
2018	16	526	356	3,885	22	8	75	305	56	286
2017	16	490	308	3,324	22	13	57	357	–	261
2016	16	459	311	3,667	23	4	57	282	–	287

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

3 injury entries across 3 seasons · 6 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often right thumb

2024Hamstring×2

2022right Thumb×5

2021Calf

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Passing yards	95	74%	64.6	+9.0
Passing TDs	95	78%	1.1	+0.1
Completions	95	82%	5.1	+0.1
Rushing yards	95	80%	11.0	+0.4
Pass attempts	95	80%	6.9	+0.3
Interceptions	95	87%	0.7	+0.0
Pass + rush yards	95	74%	68.0	+7.5
Rush attempts	95	87%	1.7	+0.1
Anytime TD	95	14% vs 15%	0.2	+0.0
First TD scorer	95	3% vs 1%	0.0	-0.0
Longest completion	95	85%	10.5	+1.1
Longest rush	82	82%	4.9	+0.6

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 10 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Car	RushYd	PassYd	TD
2026 wk 3	BAL	100%	4	19	276	1
2026 wk 2	WAS	100%	4	26	279	4
2026 wk 1	NYG	100%	2	14	175	2
2025 wk 18	NYG	51%	2	-1	70	0
2025 wk 17	WAS	100%	4	24	307	2
2025 wk 16	LAC	91%	2	14	244	2
2025 wk 15	MIN	100%	1	2	294	0
2025 wk 14	DET	100%	3	14	376	1
2025 wk 13	KC	100%	3	-2	320	2
2025 wk 12	PHI	100%	5	9	354	3