Robert Tonyan
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 20.5
- Depth
- #3
- Recent snaps
- 26%
32 yrs · 6′5″, 240 lb · Indiana State
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Line | Price | P(over) | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | |||||||
| Receiving yards | 5.4 | 0.0 – 16.0 | – | – | – | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.1 | 0.0 – 1.9 | – | – | – | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 10.6 | 2.5 – 22.6 | – | – | – | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 5.5 | 0.0 – 24.6 | – | – | – | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | |||||||
| Anytime TD | 6.0% | no range | yes | +3500 / –DK | – | +117.4%doubt | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 1.0% | no range | yes | +11000 / –DK | – | +9.7%doubt | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 2% | 0.03 | 1.00 | 11% | 0.8 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 8.6 | 0.00 | 5% | 0.11 | 1.00 | 26% | 1.9 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 7.6 | 0.00 | 4% | 0.09 | 1.00 | 27% | 1.6 |
| 2026 season | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 3% | 0.05 | 1.00 | 6% | 1.2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| 2025 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1% | 0 | – | 14% | 1 |
| 2023 | 12 | 17 | 11 | 112 | 0 | 5% | 1 | 3 | 30% | 22 |
| 2022 | 17 | 67 | 53 | 470 | 2 | 12% | 4 | 9 | 54% | 112 |
| 2021 | 8 | 29 | 18 | 204 | 2 | 12% | 2 | 6 | 60% | 50 |
| 2020 | 15 | 59 | 52 | 586 | 11 | 13% | 4 | 11 | 61% | 177 |
| 2019 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 100 | 1 | 5% | 1 | 2 | 24% | 26 |
| 2018 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 77 | 1 | 2% | 0 | – | 12% | 18 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 3 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hip
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 66 | 92% | 1.1 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 66 | 83% | 14.4 | +2.2 |
| Rush + rec yards | 66 | 83% | 15.1 | +1.5 |
| Anytime TD | 66 | 17% vs 23% | 0.3 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 66 | 4% vs 3% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 58 | 88% | 7.0 | +0.8 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  CIN | 6% | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  DEN | 11% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 4 |  BAL | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 wk 18 |  GB | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 wk 17 |  ATL | 66% | 4 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 wk 16 |  ARI | 44% | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 wk 15 |  CLE | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 wk 12 |  MIN | 27% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 wk 9 |  NO | 22% | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 wk 8 |  LAC | 23% | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |