Mike Gesicki
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 51.5
- Implied team total
- 27.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 39%
30 yrs · 6′6″, 245 lb · Penn State · 2018 rd 2 pk 42
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 34.0 | 5.9 – 66.0 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.0 | 1.0 – 5.2 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 20.1 | 5.0 – 33.3 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 31.2 | 4.0 – 61.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 22.3% | no range | +349 | Differs from form |
| First TD scorer | 8.2% | no range | +1123 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 42.7 | 0.67 | 11% | 0.27 | 1.50 | 41% | 11.6 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 42.0 | 0.60 | 11% | 0.27 | 1.33 | 39% | 10.8 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 37.6 | 0.40 | 11% | 0.28 | 1.40 | 41% | 9.2 |
| 2026 season | 2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 57.5 | 1.00 | 14% | 0.36 | 2.00 | 42% | 15.8 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 115 | 2 | 14% | 1 | 2 | 42% | 32 |
| 2025 | 12 | 42 | 28 | 307 | 2 | 10% | 3 | 8 | 42% | 71 |
| 2024 | 16 | 83 | 65 | 665 | 2 | 13% | 5 | 10 | 45% | 142 |
| 2023 | 15 | 45 | 29 | 244 | 2 | 10% | 3 | 7 | 54% | 65 |
| 2022 | 17 | 52 | 32 | 362 | 5 | 9% | 3 | 14 | 44% | 98 |
| 2021 | 17 | 112 | 73 | 780 | 2 | 18% | 7 | 12 | 71% | 165 |
| 2020 | 15 | 85 | 53 | 703 | 6 | 16% | 6 | 16 | 62% | 159 |
| 2019 | 15 | 89 | 51 | 570 | 5 | 15% | 5 | 11 | 66% | 136 |
| 2018 | 14 | 32 | 22 | 202 | 0 | 8% | 3 | 6 | 44% | 40 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 3 seasons · 1 week ruled out or doubtful · most often shoulder
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 108 | 81% | 1.7 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 108 | 74% | 20.6 | +2.9 |
| Rush + rec yards | 108 | 77% | 20.5 | +3.0 |
| Anytime TD | 108 | 21% vs 19% | 0.3 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 108 | 4% vs 2% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 99 | 81% | 7.5 | +0.5 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  PIT | 51% | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  TB | 33% | 7 | 5 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  CLE | 38% | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  ARI | 23% | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  MIA | 48% | 4 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  BAL | 57% | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  BUF | 42% | 6 | 6 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 13 | BAL | 28% | 4 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  NE | 43% | 6 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 5 |  DET | 50% | 5 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |