Sam Darnold

SEAvs

LAC

92% to play

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 42.5
Implied team total: 24.8
Depth: #1
Recent snaps: 80%

29 yrs · 6′3″, 225 lb · USC · 2018 rd 1 pk 3

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Fair odds	Evidence
Passing
Passing yards	243.6	56.6 – 320.2	–	Solid
Passing TDs	1.5	0.0 – 3.3	–	Solid
Completions	19.7	11.5 – 26.9	–	Solid
Pass attempts	29.9	16.6 – 39.0	–	Solid
Interceptions	0.6	0.0 – 1.9	–	Solid
Pass + rush yards	251.1	54.2 – 338.4	–	Solid
Longest completion	40.7	19.7 – 59.5	–	Solid
Rushing
Rushing yards	7.5	0.0 – 22.2	–	Solid
Rush attempts	2.3	0.0 – 4.9	–	Solid
Longest rush	7.5	1.1 – 16.7	–	Solid
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	7.6%	no range	+1213	Solid
First TD scorer	1.4%	no range	+6947	Solid

Form

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
Last 3	3	28.3	17.0	198.0	1.67	0.67	1.0	3.3	0.67	13.6
Last 5	5	27.6	17.6	212.8	1.80	0.40	1.2	3.8	1.40	15.3
Last 10	10	29.1	19.0	219.9	1.50	0.60	2.5	6.5	1.90	14.4
2026 season	2	23.5	16.0	196.0	2.00	1.00	0.5	2.5	0.50	14.1

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
2026	2	47	32	392	4	2	1	5	1	28
2025	17	477	323	4,048	25	14	35	95	27	235
2024	17	545	361	4,319	35	12	67	212	48	308
2023	10	46	28	297	2	1	21	15	5	23
2022	6	140	82	1,143	7	3	26	106	10	86
2021	12	406	243	2,527	9	13	48	222	35	157
2020	12	364	217	2,208	9	11	37	217	35	134
2019	13	441	273	3,024	19	13	33	62	33	189
2018	13	414	239	2,865	17	15	43	135	30	168

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

6 injury entries across 6 seasons · 10 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often right shoulder

2026Glute

2025Oblique

2021Concussion

2020right Shoulder×5

2019Illness×3

2018Foot×3

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Passing yards	91	84%	54.2	+10.2
Passing TDs	91	90%	0.9	+0.0
Completions	91	87%	4.1	+0.5
Rushing yards	91	71%	10.6	+0.7
Pass attempts	91	90%	5.9	+0.8
Interceptions	91	87%	0.7	+0.1
Pass + rush yards	91	82%	58.1	+9.0
Rush attempts	91	84%	1.7	+0.1
Anytime TD	91	11% vs 12%	0.2	+0.0
First TD scorer	87	2% vs 5%	0.1	+0.0
Longest completion	86	76%	13.0	+2.2
Longest rush	69	78%	5.6	+1.2

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 10 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Car	RushYd	PassYd	TD
2026 wk 3	WAS	100%	1	5	379	4
2026 wk 1	NE	10%	0	0	13	0
2025 wk 22	NE	100%	2	5	202	1
2025 wk 21	LA	100%	3	9	346	3
2025 wk 20	SF	89%	0	0	124	1
2025 wk 18	SF	100%	6	9	198	0
2025 wk 17	CAR	100%	3	2	147	1
2025 wk 16	LA	100%	3	7	270	2
2025 wk 15	IND	100%	4	5	271	0
2025 wk 14	ATL	87%	3	23	249	3