A.J. Brown
WR
29 yrs · 6′1″, 226 lb · Mississippi · 2019 rd 2 pk 51
Projections
A.J. Brown is listed IR and cannot play this week. No projections are published for him — a prop that voids is not a bet, and a number here would read as one.
The splits and history below are unchanged — they are a record of games already played, and stay accurate whatever happens this week.
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 39.7 | 0.00 | 22% | 0.53 | 1.00 | 78% | 7.6 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 51.0 | 0.20 | 24% | 0.58 | 1.00 | 78% | 10.7 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 65.9 | 0.40 | 27% | 0.64 | 1.60 | 85% | 14.5 |
| 2026 season | 1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 26.0 | 0.00 | 13% | 0.25 | – | 44% | 5.6 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 13% | 0 | – | 44% | 6 |
| 2025 | 15 | 121 | 78 | 1,003 | 7 | 29% | 10 | 13 | 91% | 220 |
| 2024 | 13 | 97 | 67 | 1,079 | 7 | 34% | 11 | 11 | 87% | 217 |
| 2023 | 17 | 158 | 106 | 1,456 | 7 | 30% | 12 | 18 | 89% | 290 |
| 2022 | 17 | 145 | 88 | 1,496 | 11 | 29% | 12 | 16 | 85% | 300 |
| 2021 | 13 | 105 | 63 | 869 | 5 | 28% | 9 | 11 | 70% | 181 |
| 2020 | 14 | 106 | 70 | 1,075 | 11 | 27% | 9 | 12 | 81% | 248 |
| 2019 | 16 | 84 | 52 | 1,051 | 8 | 20% | 8 | 8 | 69% | 217 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
8 injury entries across 5 seasons · 8 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 118 | 84% | 2.0 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 118 | 62% | 39.5 | +2.3 |
| Rush + rec yards | 118 | 63% | 39.7 | +1.9 |
| Anytime TD | 118 | 34% vs 44% | 0.5 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 118 | 7% vs 8% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 117 | 68% | 14.2 | +1.1 |
| Longest rush | 6 | 67% | 9.8 | +19.2 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 1 |  SEA | 44% | 4 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  SF | 100% | 7 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  BUF | 89% | 7 | 5 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  WAS | 87% | 12 | 9 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  LV | 72% | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  LAC | 97% | 13 | 6 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  CHI | 96% | 12 | 10 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  DAL | 94% | 10 | 8 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  DET | 93% | 11 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  GB | 78% | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |