Daniel Jones

IND@

WAS

66% to play

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 47.5
Implied team total: 25.5
Depth: #1
Recent snaps: 85%

29 yrs · 6′5″, 230 lb · Duke · 2019 rd 1 pk 6

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Fair odds	Evidence
Passing
Passing yards	234.8	110.8 – 304.6	–	Solid
Passing TDs	1.7	0.0 – 3.3	–	Solid
Completions	19.0	11.3 – 27.0	–	Solid
Pass attempts	27.9	17.1 – 40.4	–	Solid
Interceptions	0.7	0.0 – 2.1	–	Solid
Pass + rush yards	245.8	120.6 – 329.6	–	Solid
Longest completion	39.4	19.7 – 54.3	–	Solid
Rushing
Rushing yards	11.1	0.0 – 31.9	–	Solid
Rush attempts	2.9	1.0 – 5.5	–	Solid
Longest rush	8.6	1.7 – 17.8	–	Solid
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	12.3%	no range	+713	Solid
First TD scorer	1.8%	no range	+5402	Solid

Form

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
Last 3	3	32.7	21.7	203.7	1.00	1.00	2.3	6.3	2.00	9.4
Last 5	5	26.4	16.8	174.4	1.00	0.80	1.8	4.8	1.40	9.1
Last 10	10	30.2	19.7	221.0	1.40	0.80	2.8	10.7	2.30	13.7
2026 season	3	32.7	21.7	203.7	1.00	1.00	2.3	6.3	2.00	9.4

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
2026	3	98	65	611	3	3	7	19	6	28
2025	13	384	261	3,101	19	8	45	164	22	226
2024	10	341	216	2,070	8	7	67	265	29	135
2023	6	160	108	909	2	6	40	206	30	57
2022	16	472	317	3,205	15	5	120	708	44	289
2021	11	361	232	2,428	10	7	62	298	22	168
2020	14	448	280	2,943	11	10	65	423	45	180
2019	13	459	284	3,027	24	12	45	279	38	215

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

4 injury entries across 4 seasons · 8 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often neck

2023Neck×3

2021Neck×3

2020Hamstring×4

2019Ankle×2

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Passing yards	85	84%	60.0	+1.6
Passing TDs	85	95%	0.9	+0.0
Completions	85	86%	4.8	+0.1
Rushing yards	85	71%	18.3	+2.3
Pass attempts	85	88%	6.9	+0.3
Interceptions	85	89%	0.7	+0.0
Pass + rush yards	85	84%	63.3	+4.4
Rush attempts	85	86%	2.3	+0.1
Anytime TD	85	21% vs 19%	0.3	-0.0
First TD scorer	85	5% vs 6%	0.1	+0.0
Longest completion	85	78%	11.5	+1.1
Longest rush	83	77%	7.0	+0.7

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 10 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Car	RushYd	PassYd	TD
2026 wk 3	HOU	100%	3	5	235	1
2026 wk 2	KC	100%	3	10	210	1
2026 wk 1	BAL	100%	1	4	166	1
2025 wk 14	JAX	23%	1	4	60	0
2025 wk 13	HOU	100%	1	1	201	2
2025 wk 12	KC	100%	3	16	181	2
2025 wk 10	ATL	100%	7	53	255	1
2025 wk 9	PIT	100%	3	4	342	2
2025 wk 8	TEN	89%	1	3	272	3
2025 wk 7	LAC	100%	5	7	288	2