AJ Dillon
RB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 51.5
- Implied team total
- 24.0
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 10%
28 yrs · 6′0″, 247 lb · Boston College · 2020 rd 2 pk 62
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 17.9 | 0.0 – 49.2 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 4.2 | 0.0 – 11.0 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 10.2 | 1.5 – 19.2 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 4.8 | 0.0 – 8.6 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 0.8 | 0.0 – 1.5 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 9.7 | 1.5 – 21.4 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 22.7 | 0.0 – 61.3 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 11.4% | no range | +774 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 1.2% | no range | +8192 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 4.0 | 13.7 | 0.00 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.7 | – | 11% | 1.6 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 2.6 | 8.6 | 0.00 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 1.00 | 10% | 1.6 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 3.1 | 12.8 | 0.00 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 1.25 | 12% | 1.7 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 4.0 | 13.7 | 0.00 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.7 | – | 11% | 1.6 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 12 | 41 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | – | 11% | 5 |
| 2025 | 6 | 12 | 60 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 13% | 9 |
| 2023 | 15 | 178 | 613 | 2 | 28 | 22 | 223 | 37 | 51% | 118 |
| 2022 | 17 | 186 | 770 | 7 | 43 | 28 | 206 | 32 | 49% | 168 |
| 2021 | 17 | 187 | 803 | 5 | 37 | 34 | 313 | 46 | 42% | 186 |
| 2020 | 9 | 46 | 242 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 5 | 17% | 40 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 1 season · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often thumb
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 67 | 91% | 18.3 | +2.1 |
| Receptions | 67 | 90% | 1.2 | -0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 67 | 91% | 11.3 | +0.5 |
| Rush attempts | 67 | 85% | 3.8 | +0.3 |
| Rush + rec yards | 67 | 82% | 22.0 | +3.5 |
| Anytime TD | 67 | 25% vs 22% | 0.3 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 67 | 5% vs 6% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest rush | 66 | 89% | 5.9 | +0.2 |
| Longest reception | 41 | 90% | 5.9 | +1.1 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
