Cole Kmet
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 43.5
- Implied team total
- 23.5
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 64%
27 yrs · 6′6″, 257 lb · Notre Dame · 2020 rd 2 pk 43
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 16.4 | 0.0 – 37.2 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.7 | 0.0 – 2.9 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 14.7 | 4.4 – 30.7 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 16.1 | 0.0 – 41.5 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 8.9% | no range | +1030 | Differs from form |
| First TD scorer | 1.5% | no range | +6535 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 11.7 | 0.33 | 6% | 0.14 | – | 62% | 3.8 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 13.2 | 0.40 | 6% | 0.13 | 1.00 | 64% | 4.7 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 18.2 | 0.20 | 8% | 0.18 | 1.00 | 69% | 4.7 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 11.7 | 0.33 | 6% | 0.14 | – | 62% | 3.8 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 35 | 1 | 6% | 0 | – | 62% | 12 |
| 2025 | 16 | 48 | 30 | 347 | 2 | 10% | 3 | 7 | 71% | 79 |
| 2024 | 16 | 55 | 47 | 474 | 4 | 10% | 4 | 12 | 87% | 120 |
| 2023 | 16 | 90 | 73 | 719 | 6 | 20% | 7 | 15 | 81% | 181 |
| 2022 | 17 | 69 | 50 | 544 | 7 | 19% | 6 | 11 | 94% | 147 |
| 2021 | 17 | 93 | 60 | 612 | 0 | 18% | 7 | 14 | 84% | 121 |
| 2020 | 15 | 44 | 28 | 243 | 2 | 8% | 3 | 7 | 57% | 62 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
6 injury entries across 3 seasons · 1 week ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 100 | 84% | 1.5 | +0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 100 | 83% | 18.7 | +1.1 |
| Rush + rec yards | 100 | 82% | 18.7 | +1.2 |
| Anytime TD | 100 | 19% vs 17% | 0.3 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 100 | 4% vs 5% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 90 | 82% | 7.6 | +0.0 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  PHI | 60% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  MIN | 69% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  CAR | 57% | 3 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  LA | 77% | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  GB | 55% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  DET | 89% | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  SF | 61% | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | GB | 77% | 3 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  CLE | 73% | 4 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | GB | 76% | 3 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |