Darnell Mooney
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 44.5
- Implied team total
- 21.0
- Depth
- #3
- Recent snaps
- 65%
28 yrs · 5′11″, 177 lb · Tulane · 2020 rd 5 pk 173
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.4 | 0.0 – 14.1 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 19.2 | 0.0 – 57.4 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.1 | 0.0 – 3.5 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 18.1 | 5.1 – 33.3 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 23.4 | 0.0 – 63.7 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 10.1% | no range | +894 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 3.5% | no range | +2767 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 31.7 | 0.00 | 10% | 0.25 | – | 58% | 5.5 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 30.0 | 0.00 | 14% | 0.37 | 2.00 | 65% | 5.4 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 31.4 | 0.10 | 13% | 0.37 | 1.67 | 73% | 6.0 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 31.7 | 0.00 | 10% | 0.25 | – | 58% | 5.5 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 10% | 1 | – | 58% | 16 |
| 2025 | 15 | 72 | 32 | 443 | 1 | 16% | 7 | 8 | 82% | 82 |
| 2024 | 16 | 106 | 64 | 992 | 5 | 21% | 9 | 6 | 93% | 193 |
| 2023 | 14 | 61 | 31 | 414 | 1 | 15% | 5 | 8 | 78% | 79 |
| 2022 | 11 | 61 | 40 | 493 | 2 | 27% | 7 | 8 | 88% | 102 |
| 2021 | 17 | 140 | 81 | 1,055 | 4 | 27% | 11 | 12 | 88% | 220 |
| 2020 | 16 | 98 | 61 | 631 | 4 | 16% | 6 | 11 | 73% | 152 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
10 injury entries across 5 seasons · 3 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often shoulder
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 89 | 89% | 1.6 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 89 | 78% | 24.0 | +2.7 |
| Rush + rec yards | 89 | 79% | 24.3 | +2.6 |
| Anytime TD | 89 | 23% vs 18% | 0.3 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 89 | 5% vs 2% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 86 | 79% | 10.3 | +1.1 |
| Longest rush | 12 | 92% | 5.6 | +1.0 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  TEN | 44% | 3 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  LA | 72% | 3 | 2 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  DAL | 57% | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  NO | 83% | 7 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | LA | 70% | 3 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  ARI | 70% | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  TB | 92% | 6 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  SEA | 77% | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  NYJ | 96% | 5 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 | NO | 66% | 3 | 3 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |