Justin Herbert
QB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 42.5
- Implied team total
- 17.8
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 100%
28 yrs · 6′6″, 236 lb · Oregon · 2020 rd 1 pk 6
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | ||||
| Passing yards | 195.1 | 85.3 – 295.1 | – | Solid |
| Passing TDs | 1.0 | 0.0 – 2.4 | – | Solid |
| Completions | 18.7 | 9.8 – 28.3 | – | Solid |
| Pass attempts | 29.0 | 15.5 – 40.1 | – | Solid |
| Interceptions | 0.6 | 0.0 – 2.2 | – | Solid |
| Pass + rush yards | 217.0 | 118.4 – 316.8 | – | Solid |
| Longest completion | 35.0 | 16.8 – 52.1 | – | Solid |
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 21.8 | 3.2 – 47.7 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 4.6 | 1.0 – 9.0 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 11.0 | 2.7 – 22.8 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 19.8% | no range | +405 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 3.5% | no range | +2720 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 29.3 | 17.3 | 209.0 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 4.0 | 16.0 | 2.67 | 11.3 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 30.2 | 18.4 | 204.4 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 5.6 | 28.4 | 3.80 | 11.8 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 27.3 | 17.1 | 190.3 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 5.4 | 27.9 | 3.50 | 12.8 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 29.3 | 17.3 | 209.0 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 4.0 | 16.0 | 2.67 | 11.3 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 88 | 52 | 627 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 48 | 8 | 34 |
| 2025 | 16 | 512 | 340 | 3,727 | 26 | 13 | 83 | 498 | 54 | 287 |
| 2024 | 17 | 504 | 332 | 3,870 | 23 | 3 | 69 | 306 | 41 | 285 |
| 2023 | 13 | 456 | 297 | 3,134 | 20 | 7 | 52 | 228 | 29 | 234 |
| 2022 | 17 | 699 | 477 | 4,739 | 25 | 10 | 54 | 147 | 38 | 281 |
| 2021 | 17 | 672 | 443 | 5,014 | 38 | 15 | 63 | 302 | 31 | 381 |
| 2020 | 15 | 595 | 396 | 4,336 | 31 | 10 | 55 | 234 | 32 | 333 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 3 seasons · most often ankle
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 98 | 84% | 59.0 | +2.6 |
| Passing TDs | 98 | 87% | 0.9 | +0.1 |
| Completions | 98 | 80% | 5.0 | +0.4 |
| Rushing yards | 98 | 71% | 15.1 | +0.6 |
| Pass attempts | 98 | 82% | 7.0 | +0.3 |
| Interceptions | 98 | 92% | 0.6 | -0.0 |
| Pass + rush yards | 98 | 83% | 60.4 | +5.1 |
| Rush attempts | 98 | 82% | 1.9 | +0.2 |
| Anytime TD | 98 | 16% vs 14% | 0.3 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 98 | 3% vs 3% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest completion | 98 | 85% | 11.1 | +1.1 |
| Longest rush | 92 | 68% | 7.1 | +0.6 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  BUF | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 226 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  LV | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 192 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  ARI | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 209 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  NE | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 57 | 159 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  HOU | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 37 | 236 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  DAL | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 300 | 3 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  KC | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 210 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  PHI | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 66 | 139 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 13 | LV | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 151 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  JAX | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 81 | 0 |