Jalen Hurts

89% to play

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 43.5
Implied team total: 20.3
Depth: #1
Recent snaps: 98%

28 yrs · 6′1″, 223 lb · Oklahoma; Alabama · 2020 rd 2 pk 53

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Fair odds	Evidence
Passing
Passing yards	211.5	112.0 – 300.9	–	Solid
Passing TDs	1.2	0.0 – 2.5	–	Solid
Completions	19.7	10.8 – 26.9	–	Solid
Pass attempts	30.5	17.1 – 41.3	–	Solid
Interceptions	0.8	0.0 – 2.2	–	Solid
Pass + rush yards	236.3	109.9 – 312.5	–	Solid
Longest completion	35.2	20.3 – 54.8	–	Solid
Rushing
Rushing yards	24.8	4.0 – 46.1	–	Solid
Rush attempts	5.5	1.0 – 9.1	–	Solid
Longest rush	12.6	3.6 – 23.7	–	Solid
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	19.5%	no range	+414	Solid
First TD scorer	4.0%	no range	+2384	Solid

Form

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
Last 3	3	29.0	18.7	206.7	1.67	1.00	5.3	29.0	2.67	17.8
Last 5	5	29.8	17.8	179.6	1.40	0.60	4.8	21.2	2.00	14.9
Last 10	10	30.7	19.0	201.7	1.50	0.80	5.3	25.7	1.50	16.6
2026 season	3	29.0	18.7	206.7	1.67	1.00	5.3	29.0	2.67	17.8

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
2026	3	87	56	620	5	3	16	87	8	53
2025	16	454	294	3,224	25	6	105	421	32	301
2024	15	361	248	2,903	18	5	150	630	38	315
2023	17	538	352	3,858	23	15	157	605	36	357
2022	15	460	306	3,701	22	6	165	760	38	378
2021	15	432	265	3,144	16	9	139	784	26	312
2020	14	148	77	1,061	6	4	63	354	13	109

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

3 injury entries across 3 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often right shoulder

2024Concussion×2

2022right Shoulder×3

2021Ankle

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Passing yards	102	82%	67.0	-0.5
Passing TDs	102	88%	0.9	+0.0
Completions	102	85%	5.0	-0.3
Rushing yards	102	81%	21.9	-1.6
Pass attempts	102	87%	7.4	-0.7
Interceptions	102	92%	0.7	-0.1
Pass + rush yards	102	82%	64.1	+4.5
Rush attempts	102	83%	3.3	-0.0
Anytime TD	102	33% vs 48%	0.5	-0.0
First TD scorer	102	9% vs 14%	0.2	+0.0
Longest rush	100	84%	6.8	+0.4
Longest completion	96	81%	11.4	+1.1

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 10 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Car	RushYd	PassYd	TD
2026 wk 3	CHI	92%	4	25	153	1
2026 wk 2	TEN	100%	5	16	264	2
2026 wk 1	WAS	100%	7	46	203	3
2025 wk 19	SF	100%	5	14	168	1
2025 wk 17	BUF	100%	3	5	110	1
2025 wk 16	WAS	94%	7	40	185	2
2025 wk 15	LV	75%	7	39	175	3
2025 wk 14	LAC	100%	4	8	240	0
2025 wk 13	CHI	100%	4	31	230	2
2025 wk 12	DAL	100%	7	33	289	3