Joe Burrow
QB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 51.5
- Implied team total
- 27.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 96%
29 yrs · 6′4″, 215 lb · LSU; Ohio State · 2020 rd 1 pk 1
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | ||||
| Passing yards | 278.5 | 148.7 – 338.9 | – | Solid |
| Passing TDs | 2.2 | 0.0 – 3.2 | – | Solid |
| Completions | 24.6 | 13.6 – 31.4 | – | Solid |
| Pass attempts | 34.6 | 20.5 – 44.6 | – | Solid |
| Interceptions | 0.7 | 0.0 – 2.2 | – | Solid |
| Pass + rush yards | 288.9 | 171.5 – 366.5 | – | Solid |
| Longest completion | 40.3 | 20.8 – 59.8 | – | Solid |
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 10.4 | 0.0 – 26.2 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 2.7 | 0.0 – 4.8 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 8.1 | 1.7 – 17.3 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 13.4% | no range | +649 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 1.8% | no range | +5395 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 34.3 | 24.3 | 247.7 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 2.7 | 10.7 | 2.33 | 17.6 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 34.6 | 25.2 | 256.8 | 2.20 | 0.40 | 2.6 | 10.2 | 2.40 | 18.9 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 33.9 | 23.2 | 243.9 | 2.20 | 0.60 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 2.10 | 17.9 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 34.3 | 24.3 | 247.7 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 2.7 | 10.7 | 2.33 | 17.6 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 103 | 73 | 743 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 7 | 53 |
| 2025 | 8 | 259 | 173 | 1,809 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 41 | 17 | 134 |
| 2024 | 17 | 652 | 460 | 4,918 | 43 | 9 | 42 | 201 | 48 | 373 |
| 2023 | 10 | 365 | 244 | 2,309 | 15 | 6 | 31 | 88 | 24 | 147 |
| 2022 | 16 | 606 | 414 | 4,475 | 35 | 12 | 75 | 257 | 41 | 351 |
| 2021 | 16 | 520 | 366 | 4,611 | 34 | 14 | 40 | 118 | 51 | 314 |
| 2020 | 10 | 404 | 264 | 2,688 | 13 | 5 | 37 | 142 | 32 | 174 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
5 injury entries across 4 seasons · 3 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often toe
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 84 | 75% | 65.4 | +12.2 |
| Passing TDs | 84 | 83% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| Completions | 84 | 77% | 4.8 | +0.5 |
| Rushing yards | 84 | 81% | 10.9 | -0.0 |
| Pass attempts | 84 | 80% | 6.6 | +0.5 |
| Interceptions | 84 | 94% | 0.7 | +0.1 |
| Pass + rush yards | 84 | 77% | 68.5 | +10.0 |
| Rush attempts | 84 | 90% | 1.5 | +0.1 |
| Anytime TD | 84 | 14% vs 15% | 0.2 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 84 | 3% vs 6% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest completion | 84 | 71% | 12.7 | +1.4 |
| Longest rush | 71 | 86% | 5.3 | +0.6 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  PIT | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 282 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  HOU | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 207 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  TB | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 254 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  CLE | 99% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 236 | 3 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  ARI | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 305 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  MIA | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 309 | 4 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  BAL | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 225 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  BUF | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 284 | 4 |
| 2025 wk 13 | BAL | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 261 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 2 |  JAX | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 1 |