John Bates
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 22.0
- Depth
- #3
- Recent snaps
- 56%
28 yrs · 6′6″, 256 lb · Boise State · 2021 rd 4 pk 124
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 9.7 | 0.0 – 27.2 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 0.0 – 2.3 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 11.1 | 2.1 – 24.3 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 13.7 | 0.0 – 32.6 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 10.2% | no range | +877 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 1.6% | no range | +5963 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 11.7 | 0.33 | 8% | 0.12 | 1.50 | 54% | 4.8 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 10.8 | 0.20 | 7% | 0.12 | 1.50 | 56% | 3.5 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 11.1 | 0.10 | 7% | 0.13 | 1.50 | 57% | 2.9 |
| 2026 season | 2 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 11.0 | 0.00 | 7% | 0.11 | 2.00 | 52% | 2.6 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 7% | 0 | 2 | 52% | 5 |
| 2025 | 10 | 16 | 11 | 103 | 1 | 7% | 1 | 2 | 56% | 27 |
| 2024 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 84 | 0 | 3% | 1 | 1 | 40% | 14 |
| 2023 | 15 | 28 | 19 | 151 | 0 | 5% | 2 | 3 | 46% | 34 |
| 2022 | 9 | 22 | 14 | 108 | 1 | 8% | 1 | 2 | 44% | 31 |
| 2021 | 12 | 25 | 20 | 249 | 1 | 7% | 2 | 3 | 60% | 51 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
4 injury entries across 2 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often ankle
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 62 | 94% | 0.9 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 62 | 94% | 10.0 | +0.1 |
| Rush + rec yards | 62 | 95% | 9.7 | +0.4 |
| Anytime TD | 62 | 11% vs 5% | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| First TD scorer | 61 | 2% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 44 | 91% | 6.6 | +0.9 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  SEA | 54% | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  PHI | 49% | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | PHI | 59% | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 16 | PHI | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  NYG | 69% | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  MIN | 62% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  DEN | 51% | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  DET | 70% | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 9 | SEA | 49% | 4 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 8 |  KC | 55% | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |