Ja'Marr Chase
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 51.5
- Implied team total
- 27.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 92%
26 yrs · 6′0″, 205 lb · LSU · 2021 rd 1 pk 5
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 5.9 | 0.0 – 14.1 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 68.1 | 20.1 – 117.9 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 6.2 | 1.0 – 9.6 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 25.7 | 10.0 – 39.8 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 67.8 | 18.2 – 127.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 35.7% | no range | +180 | Differs from form |
| First TD scorer | 5.6% | no range | +1684 | Differs from form |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 61.7 | 1.00 | 24% | 0.60 | 1.33 | 94% | 18.2 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 68.2 | 1.20 | 25% | 0.61 | 1.40 | 92% | 20.6 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 76.6 | 0.60 | 29% | 0.68 | 1.50 | 94% | 18.0 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 61.7 | 1.00 | 24% | 0.60 | 1.33 | 94% | 18.2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 185 | 3 | 24% | 2 | 4 | 94% | 55 |
| 2025 | 16 | 185 | 125 | 1,412 | 8 | 32% | 12 | 22 | 94% | 314 |
| 2024 | 17 | 175 | 127 | 1,708 | 17 | 27% | 11 | 36 | 92% | 403 |
| 2023 | 16 | 145 | 100 | 1,216 | 7 | 26% | 10 | 21 | 87% | 263 |
| 2022 | 12 | 134 | 87 | 1,046 | 9 | 30% | 9 | 26 | 94% | 242 |
| 2021 | 17 | 128 | 81 | 1,455 | 13 | 23% | 10 | 15 | 85% | 305 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
5 injury entries across 4 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hip
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 85 | 76% | 2.4 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 85 | 72% | 40.1 | +5.2 |
| Rush + rec yards | 85 | 75% | 38.7 | +7.0 |
| Anytime TD | 85 | 39% vs 48% | 0.5 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 85 | 74% | 14.2 | +2.6 |
| First TD scorer | 85 | 9% vs 9% | 0.2 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 22 | 86% | 5.0 | +0.3 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  PIT | 100% | 12 | 9 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  HOU | 88% | 9 | 7 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  TB | 94% | 4 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  CLE | 100% | 10 | 8 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  ARI | 77% | 9 | 7 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  MIA | 87% | 11 | 9 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  BAL | 97% | 16 | 10 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  BUF | 100% | 8 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | BAL | 99% | 14 | 7 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 | PIT | 97% | 10 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |