Khalil Herbert
RB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 22.5
- Recent snaps
- 19%
28 yrs · 5′9″, 212 lb · Virginia Tech · 2021 rd 6 pk 217
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 12.4 | 0.0 – 35.8 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 2.7 | 0.0 – 8.8 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 7.3 | 1.6 – 17.8 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 5.1 | 0.0 – 15.2 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.0 | 0.0 – 2.1 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 10.3 | 1.7 – 23.0 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 17.5 | 0.0 – 51.0 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 7.4% | no range | +1245 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.5% | no range | +3887 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 5.3 | 17.3 | 0.00 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 2.00 | 32% | 2.2 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.2 | 10.4 | 0.00 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.00 | 19% | 1.3 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 4.4 | 16.6 | 0.00 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 2.50 | 23% | 2.8 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5 | 16 | 52 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 19% | 7 |
| 2024 | 11 | 36 | 130 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 25 | 11 | 16% | 32 |
| 2023 | 12 | 132 | 611 | 2 | 31 | 20 | 134 | 20 | 46% | 113 |
| 2022 | 13 | 129 | 731 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 57 | 22 | 37% | 118 |
| 2021 | 16 | 103 | 433 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 96 | 14 | 29% | 79 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 2 seasons · 1 week ruled out or doubtful · most often groin
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 57 | 67% | 26.8 | +4.2 |
| Receptions | 57 | 95% | 1.0 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 57 | 88% | 8.7 | -0.6 |
| Rush attempts | 57 | 79% | 5.1 | +0.7 |
| Rush + rec yards | 57 | 70% | 29.0 | +5.8 |
| Anytime TD | 57 | 20% vs 18% | 0.3 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 54 | 5% vs 4% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 49 | 69% | 8.9 | +1.7 |
| Longest reception | 27 | 81% | 6.8 | +1.3 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 18 |  BUF | 67% | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  NE | 21% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  JAX | 7% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  MIA | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 5 |  DAL | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 wk 18 |  PIT | 95% | 8 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 wk 17 |  DEN | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 wk 15 |  TEN | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 wk 14 | DAL | 10% | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 wk 13 | PIT | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |