DeVonta Smith
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 43.5
- Implied team total
- 20.3
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 78%
27 yrs · 6′0″, 170 lb · Alabama · 2021 rd 1 pk 10
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.0 | 0.0 – 14.5 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 55.3 | 15.3 – 98.2 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 5.1 | 1.0 – 7.9 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 23.7 | 9.4 – 37.7 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 53.2 | 14.3 – 110.0 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 22.9% | no range | +336 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 5.4% | no range | +1743 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 78.3 | 0.33 | 33% | 0.80 | 1.00 | 94% | 16.2 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 71.4 | 0.20 | 28% | 0.65 | 1.00 | 78% | 14.3 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 55.9 | 0.20 | 25% | 0.58 | 1.17 | 80% | 11.7 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 78.3 | 0.33 | 33% | 0.80 | 1.00 | 94% | 16.2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 27 | 19 | 235 | 1 | 33% | 2 | 2 | 94% | 49 |
| 2025 | 17 | 113 | 77 | 1,008 | 4 | 25% | 10 | 12 | 84% | 202 |
| 2024 | 13 | 89 | 68 | 833 | 8 | 28% | 8 | 13 | 89% | 199 |
| 2023 | 16 | 112 | 81 | 1,066 | 7 | 23% | 9 | 7 | 96% | 228 |
| 2022 | 17 | 136 | 95 | 1,196 | 7 | 27% | 10 | 15 | 92% | 257 |
| 2021 | 17 | 104 | 64 | 916 | 5 | 23% | 10 | 9 | 82% | 186 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
4 injury entries across 2 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 90 | 83% | 1.9 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 90 | 71% | 30.7 | +2.2 |
| Rush + rec yards | 90 | 79% | 31.2 | +1.7 |
| Anytime TD | 90 | 34% vs 33% | 0.5 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 90 | 7% vs 7% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 89 | 76% | 10.9 | +1.3 |
| Longest rush | 1 | 100% | 6.1 | – |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  CHI | 100% | 8 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  TEN | 88% | 13 | 10 | 117 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  WAS | 95% | 6 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  SF | 92% | 11 | 8 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | WAS | 14% | 4 | 3 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  BUF | 85% | 5 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | WAS | 86% | 8 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  LV | 52% | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  LAC | 97% | 8 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | CHI | 94% | 8 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |