Michael Carter
RB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 42.5
- Implied team total
- 15.5
- Depth
- #5
- Recent snaps
- 57%
27 yrs · 5′8″, 201 lb · North Carolina · 2021 rd 4 pk 107
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 21.1 | 0.0 – 57.3 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 4.3 | 0.0 – 12.1 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 10.0 | 3.3 – 21.4 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 10.7 | 0.0 – 30.3 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.7 | 0.0 – 3.8 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 11.1 | 1.8 – 26.3 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 31.8 | 4.9 – 74.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 12.6% | no range | +691 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.5% | no range | +3916 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 8.3 | 37.3 | 0.00 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 11.7 | – | 50% | 6.6 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.4 | 36.2 | 0.00 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 18.2 | 1.50 | 57% | 7.6 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 6.4 | 24.7 | 0.00 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 21.5 | 1.83 | 48% | 7.2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13 | 92 | 333 | 1 | 45 | 33 | 267 | 15 | 45% | 99 |
| 2024 | 3 | 35 | 131 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 57 | 9 | 62% | 36 |
| 2023 | 15 | 30 | 187 | 0 | 31 | 24 | 101 | 10 | 23% | 59 |
| 2022 | 16 | 114 | 402 | 3 | 54 | 41 | 288 | 28 | 48% | 126 |
| 2021 | 14 | 147 | 639 | 4 | 55 | 36 | 325 | 28 | 50% | 154 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 2 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often ankle
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 61 | 80% | 17.7 | -0.6 |
| Receptions | 61 | 87% | 1.6 | +0.3 |
| Receiving yards | 61 | 84% | 13.1 | +2.0 |
| Rush attempts | 61 | 92% | 3.0 | +0.3 |
| Rush + rec yards | 61 | 80% | 23.9 | +2.0 |
| Anytime TD | 61 | 20% vs 15% | 0.3 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 61 | 5% vs 7% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest rush | 57 | 79% | 7.0 | +0.4 |
| Longest reception | 52 | 81% | 5.2 | +0.5 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 18 |  LA | 53% | 3 | 3 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  CIN | 44% | 4 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  ATL | 53% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  HOU | 80% | 4 | 4 | 38 | 14 | 56 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | LA | 53% | 4 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  TB | 52% | 6 | 5 | 47 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  JAX | 56% | 3 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  SF | 42% | 7 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  SEA | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 7 |  GB | 37% | 2 | 2 | 25 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 |