Trevor Lawrence
QB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 51.5
- Implied team total
- 24.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 93%
26 yrs · 6′6″, 220 lb · Clemson · 2021 rd 1 pk 1
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | ||||
| Passing yards | 243.2 | 130.6 – 335.7 | – | Solid |
| Passing TDs | 1.7 | 0.0 – 3.5 | – | Solid |
| Completions | 20.8 | 12.6 – 27.6 | – | Solid |
| Pass attempts | 31.0 | 19.7 – 39.6 | – | Solid |
| Interceptions | 0.8 | 0.0 – 2.2 | – | Solid |
| Pass + rush yards | 259.0 | 154.7 – 356.4 | – | Solid |
| Longest completion | 39.4 | 22.5 – 61.7 | – | Solid |
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 15.8 | 0.0 – 37.4 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 3.1 | 1.0 – 7.2 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 10.1 | 2.3 – 19.5 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 15.8% | no range | +533 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 3.9% | no range | +2433 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 27.0 | 18.0 | 205.3 | 2.33 | 0.67 | 2.7 | 11.3 | 1.33 | 17.3 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 28.2 | 18.8 | 215.6 | 2.60 | 0.80 | 3.2 | 15.2 | 1.40 | 18.9 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 30.3 | 19.3 | 242.3 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 4.2 | 21.4 | 1.70 | 23.4 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 27.0 | 18.0 | 205.3 | 2.33 | 0.67 | 2.7 | 11.3 | 1.33 | 17.3 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 81 | 54 | 616 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 4 | 52 |
| 2025 | 17 | 560 | 341 | 4,007 | 29 | 12 | 82 | 359 | 41 | 338 |
| 2024 | 10 | 284 | 172 | 2,045 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 119 | 18 | 145 |
| 2023 | 16 | 564 | 370 | 4,016 | 21 | 14 | 70 | 339 | 35 | 263 |
| 2022 | 17 | 584 | 387 | 4,113 | 25 | 8 | 62 | 291 | 27 | 296 |
| 2021 | 17 | 602 | 359 | 3,641 | 12 | 17 | 73 | 334 | 32 | 199 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
5 injury entries across 3 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often toe
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 80 | 90% | 52.3 | +3.0 |
| Passing TDs | 80 | 86% | 0.9 | +0.0 |
| Completions | 80 | 93% | 4.3 | +0.2 |
| Rushing yards | 80 | 83% | 12.1 | +0.6 |
| Pass attempts | 80 | 86% | 6.9 | +0.2 |
| Interceptions | 80 | 84% | 0.8 | +0.1 |
| Pass + rush yards | 80 | 93% | 54.5 | +1.0 |
| Rush attempts | 80 | 89% | 1.8 | +0.1 |
| Anytime TD | 80 | 17% vs 21% | 0.3 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 80 | 3% vs 4% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest completion | 80 | 86% | 10.4 | +1.0 |
| Longest rush | 79 | 82% | 4.9 | +0.4 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  NE | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 182 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  DEN | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 189 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  CLE | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 245 | 4 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  BUF | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 207 | 3 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  TEN | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 255 | 3 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  IND | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 263 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 16 | DEN | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 279 | 4 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  NYJ | 87% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 51 | 330 | 6 |
| 2025 wk 14 | IND | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 244 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 13 | TEN | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 229 | 2 |