John FitzPatrick
TE- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 18.0
- Recent snaps
- 50%
26 yrs · 6′7″, 262 lb · Georgia · 2022 rd 6 pk 213
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 9.2 | 0.0 – 21.0 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 0.0 – 2.5 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 10.6 | 1.5 – 23.2 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 11.0 | 0.0 – 23.1 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 6.5% | no range | +1430 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.5% | no range | +3864 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 10.7 | 0.00 | 8% | 0.12 | 1.00 | 54% | 2.7 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 8.6 | 0.00 | 6% | 0.10 | 1.00 | 50% | 2.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 7.0 | 0.10 | 5% | 0.09 | 1.00 | 43% | 2.4 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 72 | 1 | 5% | 1 | 4 | 42% | 25 |
| 2024 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5% | 0 | – | 19% | 1 |
| 2023 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 1% | 0 | – | 5% | 2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
1 injury entry across 1 season · most often back
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 16 | 88% | 0.7 | +0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 16 | 94% | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| Rush + rec yards | 16 | 94% | 5.4 | -0.3 |
| Anytime TD | 16 | 7% vs 6% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 13 | 2% vs 8% | 0.1 | +0.1 |
| Longest reception | 10 | 90% | 5.0 | -1.7 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 16 |  CHI | 36% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  DEN | 70% | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | CHI | 57% | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  DET | 24% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  MIN | 61% | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  NYG | 64% | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 8 |  PIT | 34% | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 7 |  ARI | 29% | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 3 |  CLE | 23% | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 2 |  WAS | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |