Tanner Conner
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 48.5
- Implied team total
- 21.0
- Recent snaps
- 29%
28 yrs · 6′3″, 237 lb · Idaho State
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 9.9 | 0.0 – 25.9 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 0.0 – 2.6 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 12.3 | 3.1 – 25.7 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 11.2 | 0.0 – 29.6 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 7.8% | no range | +1177 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 1.2% | no range | +8412 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 11.3 | 0.00 | 7% | 0.16 | 1.00 | 40% | 2.1 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 11.6 | 0.00 | 6% | 0.14 | 1.00 | 29% | 2.4 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 10.6 | 0.00 | 6% | 0.12 | 1.00 | 27% | 2.2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8 | 15 | 9 | 91 | 0 | 6% | 1 | 3 | 33% | 18 |
| 2024 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 5% | 5 |
| 2022 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 0 | – | 10% | 0 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
1 injury entry across 1 season · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 14 | 100% | 0.7 | -0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 14 | 93% | 8.5 | -1.2 |
| Rush + rec yards | 14 | 100% | 9.1 | -1.8 |
| Anytime TD | 14 | 8% vs 0% | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| First TD scorer | 13 | 2% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 8 | 75% | 6.2 | +2.0 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
