John Metchie III
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 51.5
- Implied team total
- 24.0
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 60%
26 yrs · 5′11″, 187 lb · Alabama · 2022 rd 2 pk 44
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.1 | 0.0 – 16.1 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 23.0 | 0.0 – 60.2 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.3 | 0.0 – 4.3 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 15.8 | 4.2 – 29.4 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 19.3 | 0.0 – 57.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 12.2% | no range | +719 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.3% | no range | +4223 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 13.0 | 0.33 | 10% | 0.21 | 1.00 | 46% | 5.0 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 16.8 | 0.20 | 11% | 0.25 | 1.00 | 60% | 4.7 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 27.2 | 0.30 | 16% | 0.33 | 1.20 | 74% | 7.5 |
| 2026 season | 2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 9.5 | 0.50 | 6% | 0.12 | 1.00 | 34% | 5.0 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 6% | 0 | 1 | 34% | 10 |
| 2025 | 13 | 48 | 33 | 274 | 2 | 13% | 4 | 5 | 55% | 72 |
| 2024 | 10 | 37 | 24 | 254 | 1 | 12% | 3 | 9 | 52% | 55 |
| 2023 | 14 | 30 | 16 | 158 | 0 | 7% | 2 | 4 | 32% | 32 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 2 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often shoulder
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 40 | 90% | 0.9 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 40 | 88% | 12.3 | +1.5 |
| Rush + rec yards | 40 | 88% | 12.6 | +1.7 |
| Anytime TD | 40 | 11% vs 8% | 0.2 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 39 | 3% vs 3% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 37 | 89% | 6.8 | +0.4 |
| Longest rush | 5 | 60% | 6.0 | +0.1 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  CLE | 56% | 5 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  ATL | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  BUF | 71% | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  NE | 76% | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  NO | 86% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  JAX | 74% | 5 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  MIA | 97% | 8 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | ATL | 97% | 8 | 4 | 19 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  BAL | 86% | 7 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 11 | NE | 82% | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |