Jalen Tolbert
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 14.0
- Depth
- #5
- Recent snaps
- 32%
27 yrs · 6′1″, 195 lb · South Alabama · 2022 rd 3 pk 88
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 7.0 | 0.0 – 18.3 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 11.6 | 0.0 – 35.5 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.4 | 0.0 – 2.4 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 15.8 | 3.8 – 32.9 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 11.9 | 0.0 – 35.0 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 6.9% | no range | +1359 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.0% | no range | +4963 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 10.3 | 0.00 | 9% | 0.21 | 1.00 | 42% | 2.4 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 15.6 | 0.20 | 7% | 0.19 | 1.00 | 32% | 4.0 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 18.7 | 0.10 | 8% | 0.21 | 2.00 | 55% | 4.2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12 | 34 | 18 | 203 | 1 | 8% | 2 | 5 | 55% | 46 |
| 2024 | 17 | 79 | 49 | 610 | 7 | 13% | 5 | 13 | 76% | 152 |
| 2023 | 14 | 36 | 22 | 268 | 2 | 7% | 3 | 4 | 41% | 61 |
| 2022 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 21% | 3 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 2 seasons · most often finger
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 47 | 87% | 1.2 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 47 | 83% | 19.3 | +1.5 |
| Rush + rec yards | 47 | 85% | 19.4 | +1.5 |
| Anytime TD | 47 | 15% vs 21% | 0.3 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 47 | 3% vs 4% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 36 | 81% | 10.0 | +0.8 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 18 |  NYG | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  WAS | 62% | 8 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  KC | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  LV | 18% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 8 |  DEN | 19% | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 7 | WAS | 49% | 2 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 6 |  CAR | 91% | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 5 |  NYJ | 77% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 4 |  GB | 81% | 6 | 4 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 3 |  CHI | 88% | 6 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |