Trey McBride
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 44.5
- Implied team total
- 23.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 90%
26 yrs · 6′4″, 246 lb · Colorado State · 2022 rd 2 pk 55
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 57.2 | 21.2 – 114.6 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 6.1 | 1.0 – 8.9 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 20.1 | 8.8 – 33.0 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 61.2 | 18.2 – 119.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 35.1% | no range | +185 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 6.0% | no range | +1572 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 70.3 | 0.67 | 32% | 0.67 | 2.67 | 86% | 19.7 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 70.4 | 0.60 | 32% | 0.67 | 2.50 | 90% | 19.2 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 73.2 | 0.60 | 29% | 0.60 | 2.50 | 91% | 19.0 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 70.3 | 0.67 | 32% | 0.67 | 2.67 | 86% | 19.7 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 34 | 26 | 211 | 2 | 32% | 2 | 8 | 86% | 59 |
| 2025 | 17 | 169 | 126 | 1,239 | 11 | 28% | 10 | 34 | 91% | 316 |
| 2024 | 16 | 147 | 111 | 1,146 | 2 | 29% | 10 | 22 | 90% | 244 |
| 2023 | 17 | 106 | 81 | 825 | 3 | 20% | 7 | 11 | 69% | 182 |
| 2022 | 12 | 39 | 29 | 265 | 1 | 9% | 2 | 1 | 68% | 62 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 2 seasons · 1 week ruled out or doubtful · most often concussion
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 62 | 68% | 2.1 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 62 | 77% | 24.0 | +1.7 |
| Rush + rec yards | 62 | 74% | 24.4 | +1.2 |
| Anytime TD | 62 | 25% vs 26% | 0.4 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 62 | 6% vs 5% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 59 | 81% | 7.0 | +0.8 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  SF | 91% | 11 | 9 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  SEA | 88% | 10 | 8 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  LAC | 80% | 13 | 9 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  LA | 95% | 8 | 7 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  CIN | 96% | 13 | 10 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  ATL | 96% | 8 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  HOU | 92% | 13 | 12 | 134 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 14 | LA | 97% | 9 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  TB | 89% | 9 | 8 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  JAX | 88% | 10 | 9 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |