Velus Jones Jr.
RB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 42.5
- Implied team total
- 24.8
- Depth
- #4
- Recent snaps
- 7%
29 yrs · 6′0″, 204 lb · Tennessee; USC · 2022 rd 3 pk 71
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 7.8 | 0.0 – 22.8 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 1.6 | 0.0 – 7.1 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 8.7 | 1.1 – 16.4 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 3.2 | 0.0 – 6.6 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 0.7 | 0.0 – 0.9 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 10.9 | 1.6 – 22.6 | – | Little to go on |
| Rush + rec yards | 11.0 | 0.0 – 27.8 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 4.4% | no range | +2154 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.0% | no range | +4965 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 3.3 | 14.0 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | – | 11% | 1.4 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 2.0 | 8.4 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | – | 7% | 0.8 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 1.4 | 5.5 | 0.00 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | – | 9% | 0.7 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 3% | 3 |
| 2024 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | – | 7% | 3 |
| 2023 | 13 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 20 | – | 11% | 11 |
| 2022 | 11 | 9 | 103 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 107 | 3 | 22% | 38 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 2 seasons · 3 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 32 | 6% vs 6% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Receptions | 32 | 94% | 0.6 | -0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 32 | 94% | 7.6 | -0.9 |
| Rush + rec yards | 32 | 78% | 13.1 | +0.5 |
| First TD scorer | 25 | 2% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 17 | 71% | 7.6 | +4.2 |
| Longest reception | 11 | 82% | 10.0 | +0.6 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 20 |  SF | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  ATL | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 5 |  NYG | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 4 |  BUF | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 3 |  SEA | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 1 |  ARI | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 wk 17 |  TB | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 wk 1 |  TEN | 7% | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 wk 18 |  GB | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 wk 17 | ATL | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |