Chig Okonkwo
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 22.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 58%
27 yrs · 6′3″, 238 lb · Maryland · 2022 rd 4 pk 143
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 28.8 | 0.0 – 61.7 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.1 | 0.0 – 5.3 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 17.1 | 4.7 – 29.4 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 30.4 | 0.0 – 64.3 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 17.3% | no range | +479 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.9% | no range | +3342 | Differs from form |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 24.3 | 0.33 | 15% | 0.32 | – | 62% | 6.8 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 30.0 | 0.40 | 19% | 0.35 | 2.00 | 58% | 8.8 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 30.5 | 0.20 | 15% | 0.29 | 2.00 | 60% | 7.3 |
| 2026 season | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 16.0 | 0.00 | 10% | 0.24 | – | 56% | 3.6 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 10% | 0 | – | 56% | 4 |
| 2025 | 17 | 79 | 56 | 560 | 2 | 15% | 5 | 5 | 64% | 124 |
| 2024 | 16 | 70 | 52 | 479 | 2 | 14% | 5 | 6 | 64% | 114 |
| 2023 | 17 | 77 | 54 | 528 | 1 | 16% | 6 | 6 | 65% | 113 |
| 2022 | 16 | 46 | 32 | 450 | 3 | 12% | 4 | 7 | 38% | 97 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
4 injury entries across 4 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 66 | 86% | 1.3 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 66 | 82% | 17.1 | +0.6 |
| Rush + rec yards | 66 | 77% | 17.2 | +0.6 |
| Anytime TD | 66 | 15% vs 12% | 0.2 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 66 | 4% vs 6% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 61 | 82% | 8.6 | +0.8 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 1 |  PHI | 56% | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  JAX | 80% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  NO | 51% | 7 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  KC | 45% | 8 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  SF | 57% | 6 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  CLE | 48% | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | JAX | 61% | 5 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  SEA | 63% | 4 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  HOU | 68% | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 9 |  LAC | 68% | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |