Isaiah Likely
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 44.5
- Implied team total
- 21.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 64%
26 yrs · 6′4″, 241 lb · Coastal Carolina · 2022 rd 4 pk 139
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 32.8 | 6.4 – 69.3 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 1.0 – 5.9 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 17.8 | 5.7 – 29.0 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 35.2 | 5.0 – 72.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 20.7% | no range | +383 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 4.4% | no range | +2155 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 41.3 | 0.67 | 28% | 0.54 | 4.00 | 67% | 13.1 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 36.6 | 0.40 | 22% | 0.45 | 4.00 | 64% | 10.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 32.8 | 0.30 | 17% | 0.37 | 2.67 | 58% | 8.1 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 41.3 | 0.67 | 28% | 0.54 | 4.00 | 67% | 13.1 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 124 | 2 | 28% | 2 | 4 | 67% | 39 |
| 2025 | 12 | 36 | 27 | 307 | 1 | 12% | 3 | 6 | 57% | 62 |
| 2024 | 15 | 58 | 42 | 477 | 6 | 13% | 4 | 13 | 60% | 124 |
| 2023 | 14 | 40 | 30 | 411 | 5 | 10% | 3 | 7 | 48% | 101 |
| 2022 | 14 | 60 | 36 | 373 | 3 | 15% | 4 | 11 | 40% | 91 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
4 injury entries across 3 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often foot
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 59 | 85% | 1.4 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 59 | 81% | 20.7 | +3.3 |
| Rush + rec yards | 59 | 80% | 21.8 | +2.1 |
| Anytime TD | 59 | 19% vs 25% | 0.3 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 59 | 4% vs 8% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 54 | 78% | 10.2 | +0.8 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  TEN | 84% | 5 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  LA | 69% | 10 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  DAL | 49% | 8 | 8 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  PIT | 49% | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  GB | 70% | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  NE | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | PIT | 60% | 6 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  CIN | 52% | 6 | 5 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  NYJ | 57% | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  CLE | 52% | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |