Kyren Williams
RB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 43.5
- Implied team total
- 23.3
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 61%
26 yrs · 5′9″, 207 lb · Notre Dame · 2022 rd 5 pk 164
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 65.2 | 21.2 – 105.1 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 16.3 | 1.0 – 21.0 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 16.7 | 6.8 – 31.2 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 19.9 | 0.0 – 41.6 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.6 | 0.0 – 5.1 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 15.2 | 3.4 – 27.2 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 85.1 | 31.3 – 125.3 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 45.0% | no range | +122 | Differs from form |
| First TD scorer | 12.5% | no range | +699 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 12.7 | 71.3 | 0.33 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 35.3 | 3.00 | 63% | 17.7 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 13.8 | 68.0 | 0.60 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 31.6 | 3.60 | 61% | 19.0 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 14.5 | 69.7 | 0.50 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 26.0 | 3.70 | 63% | 17.1 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 12.7 | 71.3 | 0.33 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 35.3 | 3.00 | 63% | 17.7 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 38 | 214 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 106 | 9 | 63% | 53 |
| 2025 | 17 | 259 | 1,252 | 10 | 50 | 36 | 281 | 63 | 68% | 263 |
| 2024 | 16 | 316 | 1,299 | 14 | 40 | 34 | 182 | 79 | 86% | 272 |
| 2023 | 12 | 228 | 1,144 | 12 | 48 | 32 | 206 | 69 | 83% | 255 |
| 2022 | 8 | 35 | 139 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 76 | 1 | 30% | 31 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
4 injury entries across 3 seasons · 3 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often ankle
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 59 | 44% vs 59% | 0.5 | -0.0 |
| Rushing yards | 59 | 83% | 22.2 | +1.7 |
| Receptions | 59 | 88% | 1.5 | +0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 59 | 90% | 13.1 | -0.7 |
| Rush attempts | 59 | 81% | 4.0 | +0.6 |
| Rush + rec yards | 59 | 86% | 23.9 | +3.0 |
| First TD scorer | 59 | 11% vs 25% | 0.3 | +0.1 |
| Longest rush | 59 | 93% | 6.8 | -0.2 |
| Longest reception | 48 | 92% | 5.8 | -0.3 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  DEN | 71% | 7 | 6 | 70 | 15 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  NYG | 55% | 2 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 85 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  SF | 64% | 3 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 41 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 21 |  SEA | 51% | 2 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 39 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  CHI | 63% | 5 | 4 | 30 | 21 | 87 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  CAR | 63% | 2 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 57 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  ARI | 63% | 5 | 3 | 21 | 12 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  ATL | 71% | 3 | 3 | 38 | 13 | 92 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | SEA | 71% | 6 | 3 | 15 | 23 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  DET | 54% | 1 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 78 | 0 | 2 |