Jake Ferguson
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 48.5
- Implied team total
- 22.8
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 59%
27 yrs · 6′5″, 250 lb · Wisconsin · 2022 rd 4 pk 129
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 23.9 | 4.1 – 54.2 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.0 | 0.0 – 4.6 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 14.8 | 3.8 – 27.9 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 24.4 | 0.0 – 54.7 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 16.1% | no range | +519 | Differs from form |
| First TD scorer | 4.2% | no range | +2275 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 24.0 | 1.00 | 11% | 0.20 | 1.33 | 68% | 10.7 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 16.6 | 0.80 | 9% | 0.17 | 1.40 | 59% | 8.3 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 27.2 | 0.40 | 12% | 0.23 | 1.63 | 65% | 8.0 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 24.0 | 1.00 | 11% | 0.20 | 1.33 | 68% | 10.7 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 72 | 3 | 11% | 1 | 4 | 68% | 32 |
| 2025 | 17 | 102 | 82 | 600 | 8 | 16% | 5 | 25 | 67% | 188 |
| 2024 | 14 | 86 | 59 | 494 | 0 | 17% | 5 | 6 | 65% | 104 |
| 2023 | 17 | 102 | 71 | 761 | 5 | 17% | 6 | 25 | 75% | 177 |
| 2022 | 11 | 22 | 19 | 174 | 2 | 6% | 1 | 3 | 43% | 48 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
5 injury entries across 3 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often concussion
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 61 | 89% | 1.8 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 61 | 75% | 19.5 | +1.3 |
| Rush + rec yards | 61 | 72% | 20.2 | +0.7 |
| Anytime TD | 61 | 22% vs 23% | 0.3 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 61 | 5% vs 7% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 60 | 85% | 7.1 | +0.4 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  BAL | 69% | 5 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  WAS | 60% | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  NYG | 76% | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | NYG | 60% | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | WAS | 29% | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  LAC | 69% | 4 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  MIN | 71% | 4 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  DET | 80% | 7 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  KC | 71% | 6 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  PHI | 69% | 6 | 5 | 60 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |