Christian Watson
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 21.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 78%
27 yrs · 6′4″, 215 lb · North Dakota State · 2022 rd 2 pk 34
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.2 | 0.0 – 15.2 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 49.7 | 15.8 – 106.9 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 4.3 | 1.0 – 7.1 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 25.3 | 9.5 – 43.2 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 50.3 | 14.1 – 113.9 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 28.8% | no range | +248 | Differs from form |
| First TD scorer | 6.6% | no range | +1421 | Differs from form |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 94.7 | 1.33 | 26% | 0.60 | 2.00 | 82% | 23.1 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 86.6 | 1.20 | 24% | 0.56 | 1.75 | 78% | 20.9 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 69.7 | 0.90 | 24% | 0.59 | 1.57 | 72% | 16.7 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 94.7 | 1.33 | 26% | 0.60 | 2.00 | 82% | 23.1 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 29 | 17 | 284 | 4 | 26% | 2 | 6 | 82% | 69 |
| 2025 | 10 | 55 | 35 | 611 | 6 | 20% | 5 | 6 | 68% | 132 |
| 2024 | 14 | 53 | 29 | 620 | 2 | 15% | 6 | 9 | 59% | 105 |
| 2023 | 9 | 53 | 28 | 422 | 5 | 18% | 4 | 13 | 77% | 101 |
| 2022 | 14 | 66 | 41 | 611 | 7 | 17% | 6 | 14 | 57% | 164 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
9 injury entries across 4 seasons · 11 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 50 | 86% | 1.4 | +0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 50 | 70% | 31.1 | +1.6 |
| Rush + rec yards | 50 | 68% | 33.0 | +0.9 |
| Anytime TD | 50 | 24% vs 32% | 0.4 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 50 | 5% vs 6% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 46 | 72% | 14.9 | +2.2 |
| Longest rush | 13 | 69% | 9.0 | +6.5 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  ATL | 80% | 10 | 7 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  NYJ | 90% | 11 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  MIN | 76% | 8 | 6 | 147 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  CHI | 80% | 7 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  BAL | 62% | 6 | 5 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 16 | CHI | 62% | 6 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  DEN | 41% | 5 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | CHI | 83% | 4 | 4 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  DET | 73% | 10 | 4 | 80 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 12 | MIN | 74% | 7 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |