Keaton Mitchell
RB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 42.5
- Implied team total
- 17.8
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 25%
24 yrs · 5′8″, 191 lb · East Carolina
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 26.6 | 0.0 – 60.5 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 5.2 | 1.0 – 11.4 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 11.1 | 2.8 – 21.2 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 8.0 | 0.0 – 20.3 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.0 | 0.0 – 2.8 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 10.0 | 2.4 – 24.6 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 34.5 | 3.1 – 73.5 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 12.5% | no range | +703 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.0% | no range | +4965 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 5.7 | 28.3 | 0.00 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 2.00 | 31% | 6.5 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.6 | 23.6 | 0.00 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 2.33 | 25% | 5.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 5.5 | 30.2 | 0.10 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 1.57 | 25% | 5.5 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 5.7 | 28.3 | 0.00 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 2.00 | 31% | 6.5 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 17 | 85 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 31% | 20 |
| 2025 | 13 | 59 | 341 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 63 | 14 | 17% | 55 |
| 2024 | 4 | 15 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 28 | – | 14% | 7 |
| 2023 | 7 | 47 | 396 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 93 | 5 | 28% | 70 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 2 seasons · 1 week ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 25 | 14% vs 12% | 0.2 | +0.0 |
| Rushing yards | 25 | 80% | 24.4 | +1.8 |
| Receptions | 25 | 96% | 0.7 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 25 | 84% | 7.7 | +1.4 |
| Rush attempts | 25 | 88% | 3.2 | +0.3 |
| Rush + rec yards | 25 | 72% | 26.6 | +0.3 |
| First TD scorer | 23 | 3% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 20 | 55% | 12.5 | +1.1 |
| Longest reception | 14 | 79% | 6.3 | +2.6 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  BUF | 38% | 3 | 3 | -5 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  LV | 25% | 1 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  ARI | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  PIT | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  GB | 18% | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  NE | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  CIN | 39% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | PIT | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | CIN | 13% | 3 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  NYJ | 19% | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 |