Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 42.5
- Implied team total
- 24.8
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 79%
24 yrs · 6′0″, 197 lb · Ohio State · 2023 rd 1 pk 20
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 5.4 | 0.0 – 15.2 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 70.3 | 23.4 – 134.4 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 5.7 | 1.0 – 8.8 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 28.2 | 10.4 – 44.9 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 68.3 | 22.4 – 138.8 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 32.4% | no range | +208 | Differs from form |
| First TD scorer | 8.2% | no range | +1117 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 135.0 | 2.00 | 40% | 0.96 | 3.00 | 81% | 34.7 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 117.0 | 1.40 | 36% | 0.87 | 2.60 | 79% | 28.4 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 96.9 | 0.90 | 35% | 0.86 | 2.38 | 83% | 22.5 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 135.0 | 2.00 | 40% | 0.96 | 3.00 | 81% | 34.7 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 36 | 27 | 405 | 6 | 40% | 3 | 9 | 81% | 104 |
| 2025 | 17 | 163 | 119 | 1,793 | 10 | 37% | 15 | 17 | 77% | 360 |
| 2024 | 17 | 137 | 100 | 1,130 | 6 | 24% | 10 | 16 | 86% | 253 |
| 2023 | 17 | 93 | 63 | 628 | 4 | 18% | 6 | 10 | 65% | 150 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
1 injury entry across 1 season · most often illness
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 54 | 81% | 2.1 | -0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 54 | 72% | 32.8 | -2.2 |
| Rush + rec yards | 54 | 72% | 31.1 | -0.1 |
| Anytime TD | 54 | 28% vs 35% | 0.4 | +0.1 |
| Longest reception | 54 | 83% | 9.4 | +0.7 |
| First TD scorer | 54 | 7% vs 9% | 0.2 | +0.0 |
| Longest rush | 10 | 90% | 3.4 | -0.0 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  WAS | 87% | 14 | 10 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  ARI | 67% | 11 | 9 | 155 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  NE | 90% | 11 | 8 | 122 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 22 | NE | 69% | 10 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 21 |  LA | 82% | 12 | 10 | 153 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  SF | 72% | 4 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 | SF | 83% | 8 | 6 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  CAR | 89% | 12 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | LA | 96% | 13 | 8 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  IND | 92% | 9 | 7 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |