Michael Wilson
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 44.5
- Implied team total
- 23.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 90%
26 yrs · 6′2″, 213 lb · Stanford · 2023 rd 3 pk 94
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.1 | 0.0 – 15.8 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 67.1 | 18.9 – 114.4 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 5.4 | 1.0 – 8.0 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 24.8 | 10.2 – 42.5 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 59.3 | 19.0 – 118.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 39.5% | no range | +153 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 6.0% | no range | +1572 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 54.3 | 0.33 | 27% | 0.69 | 5.00 | 91% | 13.4 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 70.2 | 0.60 | 27% | 0.72 | 3.50 | 90% | 16.2 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 75.3 | 0.70 | 26% | 0.70 | 2.67 | 88% | 17.6 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 54.3 | 0.33 | 27% | 0.69 | 5.00 | 91% | 13.4 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 31 | 18 | 163 | 1 | 27% | 2 | 5 | 91% | 40 |
| 2025 | 17 | 126 | 78 | 1,006 | 7 | 19% | 9 | 17 | 81% | 221 |
| 2024 | 16 | 71 | 47 | 548 | 4 | 14% | 6 | 8 | 80% | 125 |
| 2023 | 13 | 58 | 38 | 565 | 3 | 14% | 5 | 7 | 80% | 115 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 2 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often shoulder
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 46 | 83% | 1.8 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 46 | 78% | 26.8 | +2.5 |
| Rush + rec yards | 46 | 80% | 27.0 | +2.3 |
| Anytime TD | 46 | 23% vs 26% | 0.4 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 46 | 5% vs 9% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 43 | 84% | 10.7 | +1.3 |
| Longest rush | 1 | 100% | 0.1 | – |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  SF | 93% | 17 | 11 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  SEA | 94% | 7 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  LAC | 85% | 7 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  LA | 93% | 8 | 5 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  CIN | 86% | 10 | 5 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  ATL | 86% | 3 | 2 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  HOU | 85% | 11 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 14 | LA | 79% | 16 | 11 | 142 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  TB | 93% | 7 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  JAX | 82% | 15 | 10 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |