Chase Brown
RB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 51.5
- Implied team total
- 27.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 66%
26 yrs · 5′10″, 211 lb · Illinois; Western Michigan · 2023 rd 5 pk 163
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 64.6 | 22.1 – 101.2 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 13.9 | 1.0 – 20.3 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 18.3 | 6.8 – 36.8 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 21.4 | 0.0 – 45.9 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.0 | 1.0 – 5.9 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 12.5 | 3.8 – 25.8 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 86.1 | 32.7 – 140.3 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 49.1% | no range | +104 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 13.5% | no range | +640 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 16.3 | 65.7 | 0.33 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 10.7 | 3.50 | 71% | 13.0 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 16.8 | 74.0 | 0.60 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 18.0 | 4.00 | 66% | 17.4 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 15.5 | 69.7 | 0.50 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 24.0 | 3.88 | 67% | 18.8 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 16.3 | 65.7 | 0.33 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 10.7 | 3.50 | 71% | 13.0 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 49 | 197 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 32 | 7 | 71% | 39 |
| 2025 | 17 | 232 | 1,019 | 6 | 88 | 69 | 437 | 49 | 67% | 283 |
| 2024 | 16 | 229 | 990 | 7 | 65 | 54 | 360 | 60 | 63% | 255 |
| 2023 | 12 | 44 | 179 | 0 | 15 | 14 | 156 | 8 | 12% | 54 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 2 seasons · 1 week ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 45 | 82% | 21.1 | +0.8 |
| Receptions | 45 | 76% | 1.4 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 45 | 80% | 13.3 | +1.2 |
| Rush attempts | 45 | 84% | 3.7 | +0.2 |
| Rush + rec yards | 45 | 82% | 25.6 | +1.5 |
| Anytime TD | 45 | 32% vs 36% | 0.4 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 44 | 9% vs 14% | 0.2 | +0.0 |
| Longest rush | 41 | 71% | 8.0 | +1.1 |
| Longest reception | 40 | 90% | 6.8 | +1.5 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  PIT | 70% | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 61 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  HOU | 70% | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  TB | 72% | 6 | 5 | 22 | 16 | 56 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  CLE | 56% | 6 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 72 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  ARI | 61% | 3 | 3 | 40 | 22 | 101 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  MIA | 61% | 4 | 4 | 43 | 12 | 66 | 0 | 3 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  BAL | 62% | 7 | 7 | 37 | 13 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  BUF | 67% | 4 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 23 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 13 | BAL | 60% | 7 | 7 | 35 | 15 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  NE | 89% | 4 | 2 | 23 | 19 | 107 | 0 | 0 |