Tucker Kraft
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 21.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 76%
25 yrs · 6′5″, 259 lb · South Dakota State · 2023 rd 3 pk 78
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 34.1 | 7.2 – 71.2 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.4 | 1.0 – 6.1 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 21.2 | 6.8 – 33.2 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 40.4 | 7.7 – 85.7 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 22.8% | no range | +339 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 4.9% | no range | +1950 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 35.3 | 0.00 | 14% | 0.28 | 1.00 | 80% | 6.5 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 53.8 | 0.40 | 15% | 0.29 | 1.67 | 76% | 11.4 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 57.9 | 0.50 | 17% | 0.32 | 1.71 | 84% | 12.7 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 35.3 | 0.00 | 14% | 0.28 | 1.00 | 80% | 6.5 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 106 | 0 | 14% | 1 | 1 | 80% | 20 |
| 2025 | 8 | 44 | 32 | 489 | 6 | 19% | 3 | 12 | 86% | 117 |
| 2024 | 17 | 70 | 50 | 707 | 7 | 15% | 5 | 16 | 86% | 163 |
| 2023 | 14 | 40 | 31 | 355 | 2 | 9% | 2 | 8 | 66% | 78 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 2 seasons · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 42 | 21% vs 33% | 0.4 | +0.0 |
| Receptions | 42 | 88% | 1.3 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 42 | 76% | 20.7 | +1.8 |
| Rush + rec yards | 42 | 76% | 19.7 | +2.5 |
| First TD scorer | 42 | 6% vs 12% | 0.2 | +0.1 |
| Longest reception | 37 | 78% | 11.3 | +2.6 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
