Josh Downs
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 25.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 73%
25 yrs · 5′9″, 171 lb · North Carolina · 2023 rd 3 pk 79
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.8 | 0.0 – 19.3 | – | Differs from form |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 45.6 | 10.1 – 97.0 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 4.2 | 1.0 – 6.2 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 20.5 | 7.5 – 37.2 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 49.5 | 9.2 – 98.8 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 30.8% | no range | +225 | Differs from form |
| First TD scorer | 5.6% | no range | +1678 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 62.0 | 0.00 | 25% | 0.67 | 2.00 | 80% | 10.9 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 56.2 | 0.00 | 21% | 0.53 | 1.67 | 73% | 9.5 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 43.6 | 0.10 | 21% | 0.50 | 1.67 | 68% | 8.5 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 62.0 | 0.00 | 25% | 0.67 | 2.00 | 80% | 10.9 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 24 | 14 | 186 | 0 | 25% | 2 | 4 | 80% | 33 |
| 2025 | 16 | 88 | 58 | 566 | 4 | 17% | 6 | 15 | 59% | 138 |
| 2024 | 14 | 107 | 72 | 803 | 5 | 26% | 7 | 14 | 64% | 183 |
| 2023 | 17 | 98 | 68 | 771 | 2 | 17% | 6 | 10 | 68% | 157 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
5 injury entries across 3 seasons · 3 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often ankle
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 47 | 87% | 1.8 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 47 | 81% | 21.9 | +2.3 |
| Rush + rec yards | 47 | 79% | 22.3 | +2.2 |
| Anytime TD | 47 | 22% vs 23% | 0.3 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 47 | 6% vs 6% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 46 | 80% | 10.5 | +0.7 |
| Longest rush | 3 | 33% | 7.8 | +0.2 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  HOU | 68% | 11 | 5 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  KC | 83% | 9 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  BAL | 89% | 4 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | HOU | 63% | 4 | 4 | 61 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  JAX | 61% | 5 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  SF | 78% | 9 | 5 | 65 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  SEA | 72% | 5 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 14 | JAX | 66% | 5 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | HOU | 57% | 6 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 | KC | 43% | 6 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |