Michael Mayer
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 21.5
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 88%
25 yrs · 6′4″, 256 lb · Notre Dame · 2023 rd 2 pk 35
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 30.5 | 4.8 – 67.8 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.6 | 1.0 – 6.0 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 16.5 | 4.6 – 31.4 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 31.4 | 5.2 – 60.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 11.3% | no range | +782 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 4.8% | no range | +1978 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 29.0 | 0.33 | 16% | 0.29 | 1.00 | 84% | 8.9 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 44.6 | 0.20 | 21% | 0.39 | 1.00 | 88% | 10.5 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 28.2 | 0.10 | 15% | 0.29 | 1.00 | 68% | 6.6 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 29.0 | 0.33 | 16% | 0.29 | 1.00 | 84% | 8.9 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 87 | 1 | 16% | 1 | 2 | 84% | 27 |
| 2025 | 13 | 50 | 35 | 328 | 1 | 14% | 4 | 6 | 62% | 74 |
| 2024 | 11 | 32 | 21 | 156 | 0 | 8% | 2 | 6 | 63% | 37 |
| 2023 | 13 | 40 | 27 | 304 | 2 | 10% | 3 | 8 | 73% | 71 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
4 injury entries across 3 seasons · 9 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often not injury related - personal matter
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 37 | 81% | 1.6 | -0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 37 | 84% | 16.9 | -0.2 |
| Rush + rec yards | 37 | 84% | 16.8 | -0.1 |
| Anytime TD | 37 | 13% vs 8% | 0.2 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 37 | 3% vs 5% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 32 | 91% | 6.2 | -0.2 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  NO | 87% | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  LAC | 84% | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  MIA | 81% | 7 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  KC | 95% | 5 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  NYG | 93% | 10 | 9 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  HOU | 67% | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  PHI | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  CLE | 16% | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  DAL | 77% | 4 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  DEN | 62% | 4 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |