Luke Musgrave
TE
26 yrs · 6′6″, 253 lb · Oregon State · 2023 rd 2 pk 42
Projections
Luke Musgrave is listed PUP and cannot play this week. No projections are published for him — a prop that voids is not a bet, and a number here would read as one.
The splits and history below are unchanged — they are a record of games already played, and stay accurate whatever happens this week.
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 33.0 | 0.00 | 11% | 0.25 | 1.00 | 69% | 6.0 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 28.8 | 0.00 | 11% | 0.25 | 1.00 | 61% | 5.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 21.2 | 0.00 | 9% | 0.19 | 1.00 | 52% | 4.1 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13 | 31 | 24 | 252 | 0 | 8% | 2 | 1 | 44% | 49 |
| 2024 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 5% | 1 | 1 | 31% | 12 |
| 2023 | 11 | 46 | 34 | 352 | 1 | 13% | 3 | 6 | 65% | 75 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 2 seasons · 3 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often ankle
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 34 | 88% | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 34 | 79% | 15.5 | +0.3 |
| Rush + rec yards | 34 | 82% | 14.7 | +1.1 |
| Anytime TD | 34 | 15% vs 6% | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| First TD scorer | 34 | 3% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 32 | 75% | 9.9 | +0.7 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 19 |  CHI | 80% | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | CHI | 76% | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  DEN | 52% | 6 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | CHI | 40% | 4 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  DET | 59% | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  MIN | 38% | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  NYG | 35% | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  PHI | 76% | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 9 |  CAR | 46% | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 8 |  PIT | 19% | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |