Malik Nabers
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 44.5
- Implied team total
- 21.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 66%
23 yrs · 6′0″, 200 lb · LSU · 2024 rd 1 pk 6
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.4 | 0.0 – 14.7 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 56.2 | 15.0 – 112.6 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 4.1 | 1.0 – 7.0 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 22.7 | 8.9 – 45.5 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 54.5 | 13.8 – 113.3 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 23.7% | no range | +321 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 3.5% | no range | +2767 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 32.0 | 0.00 | 24% | 0.52 | 1.00 | 68% | 7.2 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 25.8 | 0.00 | 22% | 0.53 | 1.00 | 66% | 5.8 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 67.0 | 0.50 | 28% | 0.70 | 1.63 | 77% | 14.6 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 32.0 | 0.00 | 24% | 0.52 | 1.00 | 68% | 7.2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 96 | 0 | 24% | 2 | 3 | 68% | 22 |
| 2025 | 4 | 35 | 18 | 271 | 2 | 27% | 3 | 4 | 80% | 57 |
| 2024 | 15 | 170 | 109 | 1,204 | 7 | 36% | 13 | 17 | 91% | 274 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
5 injury entries across 2 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often concussion
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 19 | 74% | 2.4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 19 | 63% | 30.8 | +6.6 |
| Rush + rec yards | 19 | 74% | 30.9 | +6.2 |
| Anytime TD | 19 | 27% vs 32% | 0.4 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 19 | 79% | 9.8 | +1.1 |
| First TD scorer | 19 | 9% vs 11% | 0.2 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 4 | 50% | 7.1 | -2.7 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
