Luke McCaffrey
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 22.0
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 29%
25 yrs · 6′2″, 195 lb · Rice; Nebraska · 2024 rd 3 pk 100
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.6 | 0.0 – 15.9 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 10.9 | 0.0 – 16.6 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.3 | 0.0 – 2.1 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 16.3 | 3.7 – 30.7 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 11.9 | 0.0 – 17.7 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 3.3% | no range | +2929 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 1.2% | no range | +8232 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 0.00 | 3% | 0.07 | – | 17% | 1.8 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 11.4 | 0.20 | 4% | 0.10 | – | 29% | 3.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 20.3 | 0.30 | 6% | 0.15 | 1.00 | 29% | 5.1 |
| 2026 season | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0% | 0.00 | – | 0% | 0.0 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | – | 0% | 0 |
| 2025 | 9 | 15 | 11 | 203 | 3 | 7% | 2 | 3 | 32% | 51 |
| 2024 | 13 | 24 | 18 | 168 | 0 | 6% | 2 | 4 | 35% | 35 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
No injury report entries on record. Reports go back to 2009, so this is genuinely a clean sheet rather than missing data — unless he arrived before then.
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 24 | 96% | 1.0 | -0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 24 | 88% | 14.9 | -1.0 |
| Rush + rec yards | 24 | 92% | 14.3 | -0.4 |
| Anytime TD | 24 | 11% vs 13% | 0.2 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 22 | 2% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 17 | 76% | 10.3 | +0.4 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
