Brenden Bates
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 51.5
- Implied team total
- 24.5
- Recent snaps
- 36%
26 yrs · 6′5″, 255 lb · Kentucky
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 7.8 | 0.0 – 21.3 | – | Little to go on |
| Receptions | 1.3 | 0.0 – 1.9 | – | Little to go on |
| Longest reception | 11.9 | 2.1 – 22.9 | – | Little to go on |
| Rush + rec yards | 8.9 | 0.0 – 21.3 | – | Little to go on |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 7.1% | no range | +1303 | Little to go on |
| First TD scorer | 1.6% | no range | +5983 | Little to go on |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 8.3 | 0.00 | 4% | 0.09 | 1.00 | 45% | 1.5 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 9.6 | 0.00 | 4% | 0.08 | 1.00 | 36% | 1.8 |
| Last 10 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 0.00 | 4% | 0.08 | 1.00 | 33% | 1.5 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 36% | 9 |
| 2024 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 0 | – | 20% | 0 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
1 injury entry across 1 season · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often ankle
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 6 | 7% vs 0% | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Receptions | 6 | 100% | 0.8 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 6 | 83% | 9.7 | +1.9 |
| Rush + rec yards | 6 | 83% | 10.3 | +1.3 |
| First TD scorer | 6 | 1% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 3 | 100% | 8.5 | -2.0 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 6 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 wk 18 |  CIN | 46% | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  PIT | 48% | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  BUF | 42% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  CHI | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 5 |  BAL | 19% | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 wk 18 | BAL | 20% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |