AJ Barner
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 42.5
- Implied team total
- 24.8
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 89%
24 yrs · 6′6″, 251 lb · Michigan; Indiana · 2024 rd 4 pk 121
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 29.5 | 0.0 – 61.8 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.1 | 0.0 – 5.6 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 16.8 | 3.6 – 30.9 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 32.5 | 5.7 – 70.7 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 21.7% | no range | +361 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 6.1% | no range | +1545 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 30.0 | 0.00 | 11% | 0.18 | 2.00 | 86% | 7.7 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 31.4 | 0.20 | 10% | 0.18 | 1.75 | 89% | 8.4 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 29.0 | 0.30 | 11% | 0.21 | 1.67 | 84% | 7.9 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 30.0 | 0.00 | 11% | 0.18 | 2.00 | 86% | 7.7 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 90 | 0 | 11% | 1 | 4 | 86% | 23 |
| 2025 | 17 | 68 | 52 | 519 | 6 | 14% | 4 | 13 | 77% | 147 |
| 2024 | 15 | 38 | 30 | 245 | 4 | 8% | 2 | 7 | 46% | 79 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
1 injury entry across 1 season · most often calf
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 35 | 80% | 1.4 | -0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 35 | 77% | 14.6 | +0.9 |
| Rush + rec yards | 35 | 80% | 13.9 | +1.4 |
| Anytime TD | 35 | 17% vs 31% | 0.4 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 35 | 4% vs 6% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 32 | 94% | 6.3 | +0.9 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  WAS | 91% | 9 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  ARI | 80% | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  NE | 88% | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 22 | NE | 90% | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 21 |  LA | 96% | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  SF | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | SF | 61% | 3 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  CAR | 79% | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 16 | LA | 94% | 6 | 4 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  IND | 83% | 6 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |