Theo Johnson
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 44.5
- Implied team total
- 21.0
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 69%
25 yrs · 6′6″, 264 lb · Penn State · 2024 rd 4 pk 107
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 22.8 | 0.0 – 62.5 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.2 | 0.0 – 4.2 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 18.0 | 3.0 – 29.4 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 21.0 | 0.0 – 54.5 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 10.8% | no range | +826 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.6% | no range | +3771 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 10% | 0.22 | 1.00 | 57% | 0.6 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 22.0 | 0.00 | 15% | 0.36 | 1.00 | 69% | 3.6 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 34.5 | 0.10 | 17% | 0.38 | 1.25 | 80% | 6.7 |
| 2026 season | 2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 0.00 | 8% | 0.18 | – | 37% | 0.9 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 8% | 0 | – | 37% | 2 |
| 2025 | 15 | 74 | 45 | 528 | 5 | 17% | 6 | 14 | 87% | 128 |
| 2024 | 11 | 43 | 29 | 331 | 1 | 12% | 3 | 1 | 85% | 68 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
1 injury entry across 1 season · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often illness
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 26 | 85% | 1.3 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 26 | 88% | 16.9 | +2.6 |
| Rush + rec yards | 26 | 88% | 18.0 | +1.5 |
| Anytime TD | 26 | 16% vs 19% | 0.3 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 26 | 4% vs 8% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 24 | 79% | 7.6 | +1.6 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 2 |  LA | 28% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  DAL | 46% | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  MIN | 96% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  WAS | 87% | 4 | 3 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  NE | 89% | 8 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  DET | 78% | 5 | 3 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  GB | 92% | 4 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  CHI | 97% | 8 | 7 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 9 |  SF | 86% | 6 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 8 |  PHI | 98% | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |