Brian Thomas Jr.
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 51.5
- Implied team total
- 24.5
- Depth
- #3
- Recent snaps
- 52%
23 yrs · 6′2″, 209 lb · LSU · 2024 rd 1 pk 23
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 7.0 | 0.0 – 17.8 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 27.1 | 0.0 – 69.0 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.3 | 0.0 – 4.1 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 20.8 | 5.5 – 42.7 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 24.6 | 0.0 – 66.9 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 12.4% | no range | +705 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.4% | no range | +4029 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 29.3 | 0.00 | 16% | 0.34 | – | 42% | 5.3 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 31.6 | 0.20 | 14% | 0.32 | 1.00 | 52% | 6.8 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 39.6 | 0.20 | 15% | 0.38 | 2.00 | 65% | 7.9 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 29.3 | 0.00 | 16% | 0.34 | – | 42% | 5.3 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 88 | 0 | 16% | 1 | – | 42% | 16 |
| 2025 | 14 | 91 | 48 | 707 | 2 | 19% | 7 | 7 | 78% | 139 |
| 2024 | 17 | 133 | 87 | 1,282 | 10 | 25% | 11 | 18 | 79% | 284 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 2 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often ankle
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 32 | 88% | 2.1 | -0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 32 | 81% | 30.1 | +1.3 |
| Rush + rec yards | 32 | 78% | 30.6 | +1.9 |
| Anytime TD | 32 | 28% vs 41% | 0.5 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 32 | 72% | 14.2 | +2.2 |
| First TD scorer | 32 | 7% vs 16% | 0.2 | +0.1 |
| Longest rush | 8 | 88% | 4.3 | +3.9 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  NE | 37% | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  DEN | 54% | 8 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  CLE | 35% | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  BUF | 77% | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  TEN | 57% | 5 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  IND | 78% | 7 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | DEN | 73% | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  NYJ | 77% | 7 | 4 | 66 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 14 | IND | 83% | 6 | 3 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | TEN | 75% | 3 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |