Jayden Daniels
QB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 22.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 77%
25 yrs · 6′4″, 210 lb · LSU; Arizona State · 2024 rd 1 pk 2
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | ||||
| Passing yards | 192.9 | 56.9 – 275.5 | – | Solid |
| Passing TDs | 1.0 | 0.0 – 2.5 | – | Solid |
| Completions | 17.6 | 2.4 – 25.7 | – | Solid |
| Pass attempts | 24.0 | 3.8 – 41.8 | – | Solid |
| Interceptions | 0.7 | 0.0 – 2.2 | – | Solid |
| Pass + rush yards | 227.8 | 77.6 – 302.0 | – | Solid |
| Longest completion | 34.4 | 18.0 – 52.9 | – | Solid |
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 34.9 | 8.4 – 66.2 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 6.2 | 1.0 – 11.2 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 14.8 | 5.3 – 23.3 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 30.3% | no range | +230 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 4.2% | no range | +2298 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 23.7 | 12.7 | 112.7 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 5.3 | 38.7 | 0.67 | 11.7 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 23.0 | 13.2 | 129.4 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 6.8 | 40.4 | 1.60 | 13.6 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 28.7 | 17.2 | 177.7 | 1.20 | 0.40 | 7.6 | 42.6 | 2.20 | 17.2 |
| 2026 season | 2 | 25.5 | 14.5 | 130.0 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 6.0 | 50.0 | 0.50 | 16.2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 51 | 29 | 260 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 100 | 1 | 32 |
| 2025 | 7 | 188 | 114 | 1,262 | 8 | 3 | 58 | 278 | 18 | 114 |
| 2024 | 17 | 480 | 331 | 3,568 | 25 | 9 | 148 | 891 | 47 | 356 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
5 injury entries across 3 seasons · 11 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often elbow
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 27 | 85% | 52.6 | +3.3 |
| Passing TDs | 27 | 85% | 0.9 | +0.1 |
| Completions | 27 | 85% | 5.3 | +0.3 |
| Rushing yards | 27 | 85% | 22.8 | +1.3 |
| Pass attempts | 27 | 85% | 7.0 | +1.2 |
| Interceptions | 27 | 96% | 0.7 | -0.1 |
| Pass + rush yards | 27 | 81% | 63.4 | +0.8 |
| Rush attempts | 27 | 89% | 3.5 | -0.4 |
| Anytime TD | 27 | 34% vs 30% | 0.4 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 27 | 9% vs 4% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 27 | 81% | 8.7 | -0.7 |
| Longest completion | 27 | 70% | 13.6 | +2.1 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
