Caleb Williams
QB
24 yrs · 6′1″, 226 lb · USC; Oklahoma · 2024 rd 1 pk 1
Projections
Caleb Williams is listed Doubtful and cannot play this week. No projections are published for him — a prop that voids is not a bet, and a number here would read as one.
The splits and history below are unchanged — they are a record of games already played, and stay accurate whatever happens this week.
Form
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 32.3 | 19.7 | 221.3 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 6.7 | 49.0 | 1.67 | 20.4 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 35.6 | 20.6 | 247.4 | 1.60 | 1.40 | 5.0 | 33.6 | 1.40 | 20.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 35.3 | 20.0 | 239.9 | 1.70 | 0.90 | 4.5 | 25.7 | 1.30 | 18.8 |
| 2026 season | 2 | 27.5 | 18.0 | 203.5 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 7.5 | 53.5 | 2.50 | 22.5 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 55 | 36 | 407 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 107 | 5 | 45 |
| 2025 | 17 | 568 | 330 | 3,942 | 27 | 7 | 77 | 388 | 24 | 319 |
| 2024 | 17 | 562 | 351 | 3,541 | 20 | 6 | 81 | 489 | 67 | 255 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
1 injury entry across 1 season · 1 week ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 36 | 86% | 57.5 | +6.7 |
| Passing TDs | 36 | 89% | 0.9 | +0.1 |
| Completions | 36 | 92% | 3.6 | +0.2 |
| Rushing yards | 36 | 72% | 16.4 | +2.0 |
| Pass attempts | 36 | 86% | 6.7 | -0.7 |
| Interceptions | 36 | 92% | 0.7 | -0.1 |
| Pass + rush yards | 36 | 86% | 62.6 | +9.4 |
| Rush attempts | 36 | 92% | 1.4 | +0.1 |
| Anytime TD | 36 | 18% vs 11% | 0.3 | -0.1 |
| First TD scorer | 36 | 4% vs 6% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest rush | 36 | 75% | 5.9 | +0.4 |
| Longest completion | 36 | 89% | 9.9 | +0.2 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 2 |  MIN | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 42 | 138 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  CAR | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 65 | 269 | 4 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  LA | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 40 | 257 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  GB | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 361 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  DET | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  SF | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 330 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 16 | GB | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 250 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  CLE | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 242 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 14 | GB | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 186 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  PHI | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 154 | 1 |